Today, July 26

The base scenario is sideways movement with a slight downward tilt:
the most likely range: $63,700–65,200;
the most likely day close price: $64,000–64,800;
a hold above $65,500 will pave the way to $66,500–67,200;
a drop below $63,700 could quickly send the price to $62,800–63,000.

Tomorrow, July 27
After the U.S. markets open, volatility may increase:
main range: $63,000–66,000;
bullish scenario on a break of $65,500: move to $66,800–68,000;
bearish scenario on a break of $63,000: decline to $61,500–62,000.

My subjective probability assessment:
sideways $63,700–65,500 — 55%;
rise to $66,500–68,000 — 25%;
drop below $63,000 — 20%.

The backdrop is mixed right now: after several days of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, the last two trading sessions showed outflows of approximately $225 million and $240 million. This limits upside. At the same time, the $68,000 area remains the main resistance.

Bottom line: until a confident breakout above $65,500, I expect fluctuations around $64,000. The key support level for buyers is $63,700. A sharp move is more likely closer to the start of the week and ahead of the Fed meeting on July 28–29.