#夏日创作营 Market Analysis

Sentiment assessment: Fear (Fear Index 27-35; after liquidations, market sentiment has not been repaired yet)
Main drivers:
Stabilization after a leverage-cleansing sharp drop: BTC fell from $65,705 to $63,666 within 7 hours. In the $323 million liquidation, 84% was long positions, a typical leverage-linked liquidation cascade rather than active selling. OI (open interest) rose for 3 consecutive days as price declined; the long/short ratio increased from 1.24 to 1.86, indicating some participants are building positions during the drop. The funding rate stayed roughly neutral.
ETF flows show marginal weakening: On the same day, BTC+ETH ETFs saw outflows of $310 million. BTC ETF weekly trading volume hit the lowest in 10 months, and BlackRock’s IBIT had more than $400 million in redemptions over two days; however, ETH ETFs still recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks. The ETH/BTC ratio showed a bottoming signal.
Regulatory picture is mixed: Morgan Stanley’s Staking ETF approval is a long-term positive, but the CLARITY Act was postponed to September, breaking short-term compliance expectations. The Trump family’s crypto business has become a legislative obstacle.
Technical brief:
BTC quoted at $64,355 on Gate.io, rebounding slightly from yesterday’s low of $63,666. Price action is moving between $61,400-$62,600 (a $7.0 billion leverage-dense zone) and $65,000-$65,400 (a $5.0 billion leverage zone). There is a liquidity vacuum between these ranges. Daily RSI is about 25-28, in a severe oversold range; historically, rebounds are relatively more likely at this level. The lower Bollinger Band is near $63,700; if it breaks below $62,600, it could trigger a larger liquidation cascade. $65,000 forms near-term resistance; it needs to reclaim $65,500 to confirm selling pressure has eased.
ETH quoted at $1,872, with $1,850 as key support. The $1,900-$1,920 area is a dense resistance zone.

The above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!