7.26 Morning BTC/ETH 4-hour Market Analysis + Trading Layout

The 4-hour candles have continuously printed small bullish candles. After the prior local low, the price has started a step-by-step, modest rebound, which is a consolidation-and-repair行情 following a big drop.
The Bollinger Bands are still opening downward; the Bollinger middle band keeps moving lower. There is strong resistance overhead. This rebound is only a technical dead-cat bounce after the decline and has not fully reversed the bearish trend.
Stage high: BTC 66284.1, ETH 1940.66
Stage low: BTC 63666.0, ETH 1846.17

Long/Short hands-on execution layout plan

Core idea: During a high-level narrow-range consolidation, do not chase orders in a ranging market. As long as the middle band support holds, maintain a slightly bullish bias. If the 4-hour body breaks below the middle band, the room for adjustment opens up. If there is a valid breakout above the upper band, then restart the long uptrend.

BTC Trading Plan

✅ Long positions

1. Conservative longs: Buy the dip at 65540-65590 around the Bollinger middle band support
Stop loss: 65170, Targets: 66300 → 66950

2. Alternative longs: Place orders near 64100 at the Bollinger lower band, Stop loss: 63680, Target: 65550

⚠️ Short positions

1. Short-term试空: Lightly short in the resistance zone 66900~67020 on the rebound
Stop loss: 67090, Take profit: 66200 → 65600

2. Breakdown shorts: After the 4-hour body breaks below 65560, follow with shorts on the rebound at 65800, Targets: 64700 → 64100

ETH Trading Plan

✅ Long positions

1. Conservative longs: Buy the dip at 1906-1910 around the Bollinger middle band support
Stop loss: 1886, Targets: 1948 → 1958

2. Alternative longs: Place orders near 1855 at the Bollinger lower band, Stop loss: 1830, Target: 1908

⚠️ Short positions

1. Short-term试空: Lightly short in the resistance zone 1955~1961 on the rebound
Stop loss: 1968, Take profit: 1930 → 1910

2. Breakdown shorts: After the 4-hour body breaks below 1908, follow with shorts on the rebound at 1922, Targets: 1880 → 1855

Key risk-control rules

1. Current volatility continues to narrow; a directional breakout is likely brewing. Ranging sweeps are increasing—reduce position sizes for all orders, use strict stop losses, and prohibit holding through losses.

2. If the 4-hour candlestick bodies stand firm above the Bollinger upper band, exit all short positions and follow through with the idea of chasing longs.

3. If the 4-hour candlestick bodies break below the Bollinger middle band, pause low-level long setups and switch to rebound-selling as the main focus.