As of July 26, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is at a critical turning point: the market is showing a complex picture where capital is rebounding while price is under pressure, and the technical side is nearing the most important upgrade since the “Merge,” while its core organizational structure is also undergoing a profound decentralization transformation.

📊 Market: capital recovery and price pressure coexist

· Price under pressure, but key support not broken: ETH is trading at about $1,880. Over the past month it has rebounded by about 19%, but it is still down about 62% compared with last year’s peak. At present, $1,850 is the key support level. Analysts believe that if it can hold, the target price may range from $2,060 to $2,350.
· ETF flows continue to record net inflows: it has seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks. Last week, net inflows were $103.9 million, and this month’s cumulative total has already reached $337.7 million. Although there were $70.62 million outflows on Friday alone, the weekly trend remains positive.
· On-chain data remains healthy: the validator exit queue has been cleared, but entry requires queuing for more than 43 days; active validators exceed 880,000, and the staking APR is 2.64%.

⚙️ Technicals: Glamsterdam upgrade enters the countdown

Described by core developers as the largest-scale protocol change since the “Merge,” it was originally scheduled for the first half of the year, but has now been pushed back to the third quarter (with some teams targeting the end of August). It has entered the final development phase. Key improvements include:

· ePBS (EIP-7732): separating block construction and proposals into protocol rules, eliminating reliance on third-party relays.
· Parallel processing (EIP-7928): introducing block-level access lists, laying the groundwork for parallel processing.
· Gas limit increased to 200 million: more than triple the current 60 million.

🏛️ Ecosystem governance: Ethereum Foundation’s “self-revolution”

Ethereum is undergoing a deep organizational decentralization:

· Large-scale layoffs: on June 23, about 20% (54 people) were laid off.
· Function split: the EF’s institutional collaboration function has been transferred to the newly established independent nonprofit organization “Ethereum Institutional” as of July 1; core research is handled by Ethlabs, which was formed by former EF members.

🗺️ Long-term roadmap: Vitalik’s “Lean Ethereum” vision

Vitalik Buterin released a new roadmap on July 4, focusing on resistance to quantum computing, privacy, and scalability. It plans to achieve this through forks occurring roughly every six months up to 2029. However, it is worth noting that this roadmap does not mention any changes related to ETH tokenomics (such as fee burning or staking rewards).

💎 Summary

Overall, Ethereum is in a complex phase where long-term positives (technical upgrades, organizational evolution) intertwine with short-term uncertainties (macroeconomic pressure, price volatility). In the coming weeks, the specific timetable for the Glamsterdam upgrade and whether ETH can hold the $1,850 support level will be key to judging the short-term outlook. $ETH ‌#夏日创作营