As of July 25, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $1,861, and during the day it has come under pressure and fallen back to the $1,856 range. Previously, ETH briefly broke below the $1,900 psychological level, but it is now repeatedly oscillating within a narrow $1,850–$1,900 range, with intensifying disagreement between bulls and bears. On the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD shows a bearish crossover, and short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30 periods) are above the current price, forming dynamic resistance; overall, the short-term trend is weak.

$1,850 is the most critical support level right now. If it breaks, the downside will test the $1,820–$1,800 range, and could even probe as low as $1,750. On the overhead resistance side, ETH needs to reclaim $1,890–$1,900 to restore confidence; $1,950–$1,960 is a dense pressure zone. Only a breakout on increased volume can open up room for a move toward $2,000.

The main factors weighing on ETH at present are macro: the Middle East situation is pushing up oil prices, inflation expectations are heating up, and the market is concerned that the Fed’s rate cuts may be delayed. However, at the institutional level, positive signals are still being continuously released—July spot ETH ETFs have recorded consecutive net inflows, and BlackRock’s ETHA has continued to dominate buying; whales have also recently added ETH worth about $20.59 million. This kind of divergence—retail pessimism and institutional accumulation—often reflects one of the characteristics of a stage bottom.

In the short term, under macro headwinds, ETH still faces downside risk, and whether it holds or loses $1,850 will determine the direction in the near term. But on-chain data and the flow of institutional funds have not deteriorated in sync, and the medium- to long-term structure still shows resilience. Investors should be patient and wait for clarity on direction, and avoid chasing rallies or selling impulsively.
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