#直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes

Bitcoin 2026.07.24

I. Market Snapshot (Spot BTC, current price range $64,700–$65,200)

1. Intraday & 24-hour Trend
Over the past 24 hours, price has been choppily declining. After falling from the phase high at $66,700, it officially broke below the short-term support at $65,300. The rebound that started at $62,500 has entered a deeper pullback phase; with Ethereum’s decline larger than BTC’s, market risk-avoidance funds are rotating toward Bitcoin. Altcoins are under broad pressure, and losses are widening. Trading volume has been fluctuating and expanding; as sell pressure on the downswing gradually releases, the drawback of insufficient volume during the rebound phase becomes evident. Bullish push momentum has completely exhausted.

2. Market Sentiment & Position Liquidations
The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 29, back into the Fear zone. Market wait-and-see sentiment has increased; short-term longs are repeatedly taking profits and exiting. In the 24-hour derivatives market, liquidations are mainly driven by long position closures. No large-scale cascading liquidations have occurred yet. On the 4-hour timeframe, MACD has formed red bars turning to green, with momentum shifting from strong to weak; the indicator continues to move downward, and short-term bears hold the advantage.

3. ETF Flows
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has ended a streak of seven consecutive days of net inflows, with yesterday recording approximately $225 million in net outflows. Short-term institutional profits were taken, and support from continuous buying is temporarily lost. However, weekly flows still remain net inflows, and long-term capital has not fled in large scale. There is still buying support below.

II. Key Price Levels

Short-term Resistance (Top to Bottom)

1. Strong Resistance: $66,600–$66,900 (a dense trapped-longs area at the top of this rebound)
2. Short-term Resistance: $65,600–$65,900 (after breaking support and flipping to the first resistance; the rebound is unlikely to break through in one go)

Short-term Support (Bottom to Top)

1. First Support: $64,400–$64,600 (intraday key support; the short-term line between bulls and bears)
2. Strong Support: $63,700–$64,000 (the core lifeline of this rebound; once effectively broken, the rebound structure is declared over)

III. Multi-side Driver Logic

Bullish Factors (Support)

1. Weekly ETF flows still remain net inflows; the logic of institutions’ medium- to long-term bottom positioning has not changed. The earlier bottom-side holdings around $62,500 are stable, leaving limited room for deep downside.
2. On-chain long-term holders’ positions are stable, with no whale-style concentrated sell-off.
3. The market still retains forward-looking expectations for improvements in US crypto regulatory bills, which limits sustained deterioration of pessimistic sentiment.

Today’s Main Bearish Factors (Downside Pressure)

1. US Treasury yields continue to rise; the market adjusts upward its expectations for Fed rate hikes. A high-rate environment suppresses non-yielding risk assets. Meanwhile, Middle East geopolitical conflict escalates, pushing oil prices higher again and reigniting inflation concerns—funds prioritize allocating to gold for risk hedging.
2. The ETF ends its consecutive streak of net inflows; short-term institutional buying demand disappears, and the most important support for bulls is temporarily weakened.
3. Multiple failed attempts to break through the $66,800 resistance zone lead to a double-top formation; short-term profit-takers consolidate and close positions.
4. Derivatives market is nearing a large options expiration (notional size $1.2 billion). The “maximum pain” point is near $64,500, giving funds a potential motive to actively pressure the price.
5. Cooling expectations for the Clarity Act being enacted reduces the market’s risk appetite again.

IV. Outlook by Timeframe

1. Short-term (1–3 days): Weak consolidation drifting downward, testing the validity of support
The rebound trend has already weakened; the market’s focus shifts lower. The main trading range is $63,700–$65,900. If $64,400 support holds, it will enter a consolidation-and-repair phase. If it effectively breaks below $63,700, this round of the phase rebound ends, and price will further probe the $62,500 prior bottom.

2. Medium-term (1–4 weeks): Enter a window for directional selection
The medium- to long-term bottom-ranging structure remains unchanged, but the short-term bulls’ edge has disappeared. Two scenarios ahead: if $63,700 support holds, the market maintains large-box consolidation; if key support breaks, it starts a new round of pullback. To reverse the weakness, bulls need the ETF to restore sustained net inflows and for price to build volume and hold above the $65,900 resistance.

3. Long-term (quarterly level)
The overall wide-range consolidation pattern has not changed, and the space for an extreme drop is limited. Without major catalysts, it is difficult to move into a one-way bull market. Price is likely to keep running in swings; for trend-driven moves, alignment is needed from a Fed policy shift and major positive crypto policy catalysts.

V. Key Signals to Watch Next

1. Macro: US Treasury yields, Middle East situation, international oil prices. As the Fed’s policy meeting approaches, pay special attention to officials’ remarks.
2. Flows: Whether spot ETFs can return to net inflows again; the options-expiration funding battle; derivatives liquidation size.
3. Technicals: The defense strength of $64,400 support; whether the rebound can regain and hold above $65,900.