Changxin Technology IPO performance forecast roundup: a P/E ratio benchmark against Hailis could potentially reach 3 trillion yuan; in an AI upcycle, it could reach 5 trillion yuan

ME News message, July 25 (UTC+8): Changxin Technology (Changxin Memory/CXMT), China’s leading domestic storage-chip company, plans to be officially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR Market next Monday (July 27). Its initial market capitalization is about 5800 billion yuan. Changxin is expected to be able to target the world’s No. 3 DRAM supplier. The following are the current forecasts on its market-cap performance after listing:

UBS’ latest research report believes the DRAM industry will face a supply shortage and demand exceeding supply, at least continuing until the second quarter of 2028. This sustained high-demand outlook provides key support for market expectations that Changxin Technology could achieve a trillion-yuan-level valuation and even higher.

Zhang Xiaorong, president of the DeepTech Research Institute, said: assuming Changxin’s net profit this year is around 1 trillion yuan, a reasonable PE multiple would be 20---25 times. Coupled with industry-market momentum drivers, after listing it will most likely be able to move toward a trillion-yuan-level market capitalization.

CNBC technology analyst Daniel Haylor’s view: Changxin Technology is well positioned, especially benefiting from the severe shortage in the mobile memory market. The world’s three largest storage giants are shifting large amounts of capacity to the higher-profit HBM sector, which will further squeeze the supply of general-purpose DRAM. As China’s DRAM leader, Changxin Technology is expected to deliver significant growth and a valuation re-rating in this structural opportunity.

Senior investment-banking professional Wang Jiyue predicts that after Changxin Technology lists, its valuation is expected to reach 2 trillion yuan---3 trillion yuan. Compared with SK hynix, the latest trailing-twelve-month (TTM) price-to-earnings ratios of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are 21.7x and 21.3x, respectively.

A research report from CITIC Securities expects that the storage supply-demand imbalance will persist until at least 2027, and that price increases will run throughout all of 2026. The strengthened industry-cycle logic reinforces institutions’ optimistic judgments about Changxin Technology’s valuation of 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan after listing.

Reuters’ view: its market capitalization is likely to exceed 3 trillion yuan. Under an AI upcycle and the drive for technological self-reliance, it could even reach 5 trillion yuan.

Multiple Chinese brokerage firms have made consistent predictions that after Changxin Technology lists, its market capitalization may surge toward 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan. The key supports include AI-driven long-term demand for DRAM/HBM, the company’s unique attributes as the only DRAM production capacity platform in China, backing from the national large fund, and the logic of domestic substitution. Some calculations show that the reasonable opening range is 2 trillion--2.5 trillion yuan.

Financial Times analysts expect that Changxin Technology’s valuation could soar to as high as 3 trillion yuan, mainly benefiting from a wave of demand for storage chips led by AI and the company’s rapid expansion of its share in the global DRAM market. International analysts are also optimistic about the company’s growth story and structural opportunities.

Some optimistic institutions and some brokerage industry analysts believe that under high industry sentiment and the scarcity premium for semiconductors in A-shares, Changxin Technology’s market-cap peak at certain points could break through 3 trillion yuan and even reach 4 trillion yuan. Under extreme scenarios, it could be even higher. This view is based on 2026 high net profit expectations and the valuation logic of growth stocks compared with international industry leaders.

Third-party research (source: BlockBeats)