ETH worth $1,850—do you still have faith?

In July, it bounced violently from 1,570 back to 1,900. You just felt, “The bull market is back,” and then it got smashed back to 1,850. Next week’s FOMC is a life-or-death decision, with both bulls and bears fighting fiercely at 1,850—so is this “the final washout before the super cycle,” or your last chance to escape?

First, look at the surface: the rebound hits resistance, and the split between bulls and bears reaches the extreme.

In the past 30 days, it’s up 12%-14%. It rebounded from the 1,570 low, tested 1,900-1,950 recently, and then pulled back. It’s currently ranging around 1,850. In mid-July, spot ETH ETF ended several weeks of net outflows—one week saw peak inflows of over $100 million. The candles tell you: 1,850 has been defended multiple times, forming higher lows. Daily RSI is trending upward, and volume shrinks when it’s falling—selling pressure isn’t heavy, but the bulls also don’t have the nerve to pump.

At 1,850, bulls and bears are fighting over who moves first—nobody dares to act. Trader sentiment has reached peak divergence: bulls see 2,000-2,200, while bears see 1,200.

First thing: ETFs are returning, but retail is still panicking.

In mid-July, the spot ETH ETF ended consecutive weeks of net outflows and switched to consecutive days of net inflows. Peak inflows hit over $100 million in one week, led by BlackRock’s ETHA. Even though around July 24 saw roughly 37k ETH in net outflows, ending five days of inflows, cumulative net flows still remain positive—historically about $11 billion cumulative.

Sounds not exciting? Let me tell you what it means:

Institutions quietly bought for an entire week below 1,850, while you’re calling ETH “trash.” Same script as the 2023 BTC ETF—institutions quietly accumulated while retail kept cutting losses wildly, and then what? BTC rose from $20k to $120k.

What does “accumulating on dips” mean? It’s when you panic, and institutions get greedy.

Second thing: fundamentals haven’t changed—what changed is your mindset.

Mainnet DeFi TVL is about $41 billion. Stablecoin and smart contract activity stay elevated, and the L2 ecosystem continues expanding. On-chain data shows the price is below realized price (realized price). Historically, that’s a relatively undervalued range.

If you don’t get it, it’s fine—I’ll translate it into plain human language:

More people are using ETH, but the price is still getting lower—that’s divergence.

Below realized price means most holders are losing money.

Historically, every time it reaches this level, it’s been a golden pit.

ETH’s fundamentals didn’t break—what broke is your faith.

You say ETH isn’t good? Then tell me which one isn’t ETH’s territory: DeFi, RWA, stablecoins, or L2. Solana is fast, Tron is cheap—but who is doing the most hardcore settlement layer?

Third thing: FOMC is coming—this is the biggest variable.

Next week, July 28-29 FOMC. The market expects rates to be kept unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% (70%-90% probability). June CPI came in below expectations, easing fears of more hikes. But oil prices rose due to geopolitics, pushing the probability of “at least one more hike within 2026” to 70%.

Plain English: if FOMC is dovish → ETH straight to 2,000+. If hawkish → first dump back to 1,700, then give you a chance to board.

No matter which outcome, ETH’s price is still low right now. The difference is only this: are you buying now, or waiting for FOMC then chasing higher?

Bulls vs bears—judge for yourself.

One side says:

ETF shifts from continuous outflows to intermittent inflows—institutions start bargain hunting

Price is below realized price—historically undervalued

DeFi TVL $37k—an unbeatable moat for the ecosystem

FOMC likely holds steady, risk assets benefit

The other side says:

Denied 3 times between 1,900-1,950—bulls lack confidence

Oil prices rising + geopolitics, inflation could keep coming back

L2 siphons value, reducing the mainnet’s ability to capture value

Still down over 35% YTD—the trend hasn’t fully reversed

Key level: 1,850 is only $50 away from the life-or-death line at 1,900

Resistance above: 1,900-1,920 → 1,935-1,950 (breakout means reversal) → 2,000

Support below: 1,840-1,850 → 1,820-1,834 → 1,800 → 1,780 (hard floor)

Trading strategy (no fluff)

For short-term traders:

Scale in long with small positions in the 1,840-1,855 range, stop loss below 1,820 (strict!), targets 1,900 → 1,950 → 2,000. If you hold before FOMC and see volume expand, you can add.

If it breaks and closes effectively below 1,820, flip to short, target 1,780 → 1,750, stop loss above 1,850.

For swing traders:

If FOMC is dovish + ETFs keep flowing in, add on dips at 1,800-1,850, target 2,200. If it’s hawkish, wait for a better buy point near 1,700.

For long-term believers:

Buy monthly/keep investing blindly below 1,850. Since price is below realized price + institutions start flowing back, the target by end-2026 is around 2,500-3,000. Keep total position size at 20%-30%, invest with spare funds, and hold—don’t move.

ETH right now is like the 2023 BTC—

Everyone thinks “L2 siphons away value, ETH has no story,” and then when the institutional ETF finally comes in—from 1,500 it went to 4,000. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $SOL