I. The most core fundamental crude oil data (biggest impact on market moves)

1. EIA Crude Oil Inventories (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

✅ Time: Every Wednesday at 22:30 (daylight saving time)
✅ Meaning: Amount of U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles

- Large increase in inventories → supply surplus → bearish for crude oil (down)
​
- Large decrease in inventories → improving demand → bullish for crude oil (up)
⚠️Note: There are often inverse moves; you can’t only look at the numbers—you need to compare the forecast value vs. the actual value

2. API Crude Oil Inventories (American Petroleum Institute)

✅ Time: Every Tuesday at 04:30 a.m.
Private inventory data; a forward-looking reference for EIA. It tends to drive volatility, but its authority is lower than EIA.

3. OPEC+ production policy (most important)

OPEC+ (oil-producing alliance led mainly by Saudi Arabia and Russia)

- Production cuts: reduce supply → supports a rise in oil prices
​
- Production increases: increase supply → pressures oil prices downward
Every meeting, or any message about extending Saudi voluntary production cuts, can cause crude oil to swing sharply.

4. Number of U.S. drilling rigs (Baker Hughes rig count)

Released every Friday
More rigs = stronger U.S. intention to produce crude oil; future crude production rises. In the medium-to-long term, this is bearish for oil prices.

5. Supply-demand and macro indicators

1. U.S. CPI and inflation data: affect Fed rate hikes/cuts
Stronger rate-hike expectations → stronger U.S. dollar → crude oil (dollar-denominated) pressured and falls
​
2. Global PMI manufacturing data: reflects industrial demand; weak manufacturing means weaker crude demand
​
3. Geopolitical conflicts (Middle East, Red Sea, Russia-Ukraine): directly disrupt crude supply expectations; a short-term tool for explosive upside

6. Crack spread (a crude-oil-specific indicator)

Profit from refining crude oil into gasoline and diesel.
Crack spreads rising → refineries increase crude purchases → boosts crude oil demand → bullish for oil prices. #Gate事件合约首发狂欢