July 25 Trading Outlook:

Yesterday, ETH continued to decline, and the current bearish stance remains unchanged.

On the fundamentals: with the recent escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, oil prices surged again, reinforcing rate-hike expectations. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that, according to current pricing, the probability of the Fed raising rates next week has risen to 38%, up from just 12% a week ago. On the other hand, Trump said that there are many exit options regarding the Iran issue, such as a military exit strategy or reaching an agreement with Iran, but he does not believe Iran is currently ready to reach an agreement. We may also attack Iran in a more aggressive way. Negotiations with Iran are ongoing right now.

On the technical side: on the 4-hour chart, yesterday price broke below the key support of 1873. Although the short-term support at 1846 is relatively strong, the pullback pressure brought by the triple divergence has still not been relieved. On the hourly chart, price has been consolidating around the 1846 support in the short term, and the downward trend since 1857 has not ended yet.

For execution today, staying bearish remains the main focus. Around 1860, you may first test entering a short position, then wait for the hourly chart to break below 1846 before considering adding to the position. Set a stop-loss at 1880, with downside targets at 1826 and 1814. If there are any changes later, I’ll remind you first!