#夏日创作营 Bitcoin surged and then pulled back to around $64,000—analysis of the recent price action

This week, Bitcoin fell from above $67,000 to $63,700; as of the latest quote on July 25, it is around $64,000. This article reviews the backdrop of this fluctuation from the macro, policy, capital, and technical perspectives, and offers an objective projection of possible future directions.

I. Market Recap: After a spike, a rapid pullback—This week’s Bitcoin price action showed a pattern of first rising, then dropping. At the start of the week, it gradually climbed from around $64,800, and at one point during the day it came close to $67,000. In the early hours of Friday, after touching $65,705, the price dropped to $63,666 within about 7 hours, a decline of roughly 3%. Currently, the price is consolidating narrowly around $64,000. With this pullback, about $312 million in leveraged positions across the entire market were liquidated, including approximately $87 million in Bitcoin long liquidations.

II. Main Factors Behind the Pullback
1. U.S. Treasury yields rise, adding macro pressure—Recently, the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury has risen to 4.31%, clearly above the Fed’s target range for its policy rate. Market expectations for a rate hike in September have warmed up, and news that the Trump administration plans to impose tariffs on multiple trading partners has also pushed up inflation expectations. Together, these factors have suppressed the performance of risk assets, including Bitcoin.
2. Digital asset regulatory bill faces obstacles—The CLARITY digital asset bill, previously seen by the market as an important positive, encountered differences during bipartisan negotiations. The market estimates the probability of it ultimately passing at about 35%. The main disputes center on regulatory loopholes and the allocation of enforcement powers. With Congress soon entering its August recess period, the likelihood of this bill taking effect this year is low; regulatory uncertainty will likely remain in the short term.
3. Longs actively reduce positions; liquidation cascade from trading volume—Judging from volume, this decline was not primarily driven by fresh short-selling pressure; in fact, the four-hour timeframe’s short-side trading volume has contracted. The price drop is more attributable to longs actively closing positions and taking profits. Notably, bn交易所在 around $64,000 showed buy limit orders, providing some liquidity support.

III. Technical Analysis
On the technical indicators, the KDJ shows a turn downward, and the MACD’s bullish momentum has weakened. A preliminary divergence between price and volume on a daily timeframe has appeared, suggesting spot buyers’ strength is relatively weak; the current price is driven more by the derivatives market. Liquidation pressure levels based on Coinglass data: if the price rises above $67,303, the cumulative short liquidation pressure on major exchanges is about $1.54B; if the price falls below $61,193, the cumulative long liquidation pressure is about $1.01B. This means that once the price breaks in either direction, it may trigger a short-term acceleration move.

IV. Two Possible Paths for the Next Phase
Scenario 1: Continue to test lower—If the four-hour candlesticks close and confirm a break below $64,000, the short-term uptrend structure could be damaged. Downside targets to watch in sequence: around $63,350 (a liquidity zone); $62,335 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and an order block); if $62,000 breaks, it could further test the mid-term support range of $59,356–$62,492. Some more cautious views hold that if the core support zone is effectively breached, a move down into even lower ranges cannot be ruled out in the medium term.
Scenario 2: Stabilization and rebound—If the four-hour candlesticks move back above the $64,600–$65,000 area, the recent breakdown could be viewed as a false breakout. Then the price may test around $66,200 again. If it can further break above $67,303, it could trigger short covering and push the price higher. Some traders also believe Bitcoin’s cycle is still accelerating, and that this cycle could still set a new high before the next halving, but this judgment requires more fundamental confirmation.

V. Current Market Characteristics and Summary
The current Bitcoin market shows the following characteristics:
Volatility is at a low level: one-year realized volatility is about 42%, close to the relatively low levels seen in recent years. A low-volatility environment often implies a potential directional breakout later.
Market sentiment is cautious: the Fear & Greed Index is in the Fear zone, and market participants’ risk appetite is relatively low.
Overall structure: from a medium- to long-term perspective, the market is more likely to continue a wide-range consolidation pattern; a trend-driven move may need to wait for clearer macro or policy signals.

Taken together, $64,000 is the key level for the near-term bulls-versus-bears battle. The subsequent path will depend on changes in U.S. Treasury yields, progress on regulatory policies, and the liquidation dynamics in the derivatives market. At this stage, it is more important to monitor gains and losses within key zones than to predict a one-way direction.

The above content is compiled based on publicly available market information for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.