7.25th midday market outlook.

$BTC

View: BTC broke below the 64679 support. It’s now being held back by the lower boundary of a triangle and the 63758 support, so the selloff hasn’t continued. Will the area pointed to by the white arrow form a double-bottom pattern? To form a double bottom on the hourly timeframe, price must break and hold above 64679; only then can the hourly double bottom be considered valid. If even the rebounds can’t set new highs, how could a double-bottom pattern form? Hopefully BTC doesn’t break the 63758 support. As long as 63758 holds, BTC should range-trade and consolidate around 63758-64679; consolidation will likely push upward again. But if it breaks below 63758, the consolidation zone marked by the red box will show structural damage, and then we can only look down to 62593. Breaking 63758 on the hourly timeframe means the bullish trend has just moved from the previous strong bullish range back into a weak bullish range; however, this bullish trend hasn’t been broken yet. Only when the hourly timeframe breaks 61672 will the bullish trend be completely destroyed—then we can officially say this hourly bullish trend has ended. Until it breaks 61672, don’t be too pessimistic. BTC breaks out with volume above 64319 on the right side to chase longs; if 63758 breaks with volume and the subsequent pullback can’t reclaim the right-side short entry, take profit? No—hold stops properly: take a short, and set a good stop loss. BTC: on the hourly timeframe, a confirmed break and hold above 64319 means looking up at 65090-65781; if it can’t get above 64319, it’s pointless. On the 4-hour timeframe, if it breaks below 63758, look down to 62774-61688.
Resistance: 64319-65090-65781
Support: 63758-62774-61688

$ETH

Idea: ETH breaks out with volume above 1866 on the right side—chase long, and set a stop loss to recapture. If it drops with volume below 1853 on the right side, chase a short, and set a good stop loss. Pull back to 1803 to confirm support for another long position. If it breaks below 1777, stop loss. ETH: on the hourly timeframe, if it holds above 1866, look up at 1895-1915. For ETH, pay attention to 1915 above for a chance to short one; if it breaks 1956, stop loss. Left-side pin/needle orders: long at 1752; if it breaks below 1712, stop loss.
Resistance: 1866-1895-1915
Support: 1853-1803-1777
On the 4-hour timeframe, if it breaks below 1853, look down to 1825-1800.
On the 4-hour timeframe, if it breaks below 1853, look down to 1825-1800. ETH broke the flag pattern. After breaking the flag, there was a pullback trying to return to operate within the flag, but it failed. Now for ETH to move up, it must return to trade within the flag; the corresponding price is 1870. Only if it can reclaim and operate within the flag again will there be another chance to challenge 1908. If it can’t return to operate within the flag, just don’t let it break 1852. If it breaks 1852, you’ll see ETH at 1800. Even though the downside red arrow area pierced the 1852 support with a downward pin, the closing price of the body didn’t close below 1852—this isn’t a true breakdown. As long as 1852 doesn’t break, the selloff range won’t expand. If 1852 breaks, it’s over. If it can’t get above 1870, it can’t rise. This Saturday and Sunday, it should just range-trade around 1852-1870. Only when it breaks out or breaks down this range will direction appear. That’s it, meeting adjourned.