7.25 BTC analysis

Friends! Happy weekend! The current market is in the secondary rebound phase within a bearish trend. Price is moving between the upper-middle and lower-middle bands; the middle band is the line that separates long and short positions, and the lower band is extreme support. The short-cycle RSI is forming a bullish crossover at a low level, with negative divergence converging, indicating a technical rebound pullback demand on the hourly timeframe. However, the medium-term indicators are still weak, and the rebound is qualitatively an oversold-repair. The overhead selling pressure is concentrated around the middle band. If the market loses the previous low, it may accelerate downward to seek a bottom near the lower band. Aggressive traders can try a small long position near the lower band, placing the stop-loss below the previous low and targeting the middle band. More conservative traders should wait until the rebound meets resistance at the middle band before opening a short, setting the stop-loss above the middle band and targeting the lower band. If price effectively holds above the middle band, the short logic will be temporarily eased. This is a trend-turning fluctuation right now—strictly control position size and guard against the risk of a sharp drop if the rebound fails.

Trading suggestion: 64500-65000箜, target 62500-63000.

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