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Coinbase Institutional: Maintains a Neutral Outlook for the Q3 Crypto Market
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be shifting from a correction/adjustment phase toward an accumulation phase: valuation compression, recent active supply approaching a multi-year low, and the share of profitable supply falling below the historical statistical lower bound (historically often corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones).
However, the macro liquidity environment is tight. The Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Kevin Warsh, maintained a hawkish stance; the U.S. dollar stayed strong; together with geopolitical risks, pressure from digital asset treasury sell-offs, and net outflows from spot BTC/ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the outflow pace has started to slow), the overall posture remains cautious.