The U.S. carried out 13 consecutive nights of airstrikes against Iran; Brent crude oil broke above $100; Bitcoin was forced back by $64k

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that airstrikes on Iran have continued for 13 straight nights, and the settlement price of Brent crude broke above $100 on Thursday, setting a new high since May. In contrast to the sharp reaction in traditional assets, Bitcoin weakened on a loose downtrend, holding around $64k, but the market generally believes this round of BTC is “no longer pricing the war,” with control returning to the Federal Reserve and spot ETF inflows/outflows.
(Background recap: U.S. military bombed Iran for seven consecutive nights! Rebooted the port blockade, pushing crude toward $79)
(Additional context: Bloomberg: The U.S.-Iran war has limited impact on Bitcoin, which has been ranging between $60k and $70k)

Key summary

• The U.S. Central Command completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with the third round of operations hitting about 140 military targets
• Brent crude settled at $100.69 on Thursday, breaking above $100 and reaching a 5-month high; up sharply from $71.57 on July 1
• Bitcoin opened at $65,047 on July 24, down only 1.6%; spot ETF net outflows of $225 million in a single day

Fighting between the U.S. and Iran has entered its 13th night. CENTCOM said the third wave of the latest round of strikes hit about 140 Iranian military targets, covering command centers, drone hangars, and coastal surveillance facilities in places including Bushire, Jask, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas. The goal is to weaken Iran’s ability to attack merchant ships.

Iran retaliated immediately. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its naval base was hit by U.S. forces, and announced strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait, claiming it destroyed a Patriot air defense system. Iran also said it had attacked U.S.-related bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

Jordan said it intercepted seven missiles and six drones launched by Iran. Iran also alleged that a U.S. force accidentally hit a merchant ship, killing two crew members, which the U.S. has not yet confirmed. Since July 7, nearly 100 U.S. personnel have been injured, and four have been killed, with Trump earlier attending a memorial ceremony where the fallen officers’ remains were brought in.

Oil breaks $100, but Bitcoin stands still

In the week when the conflict was most intense, traditional assets showed the biggest reaction. Brent crude (24th) surged as much as about 7% and settled at $100.69, jumping from $71.57 on July 1. The trigger was an attack by the Houthis in the Red Sea on Saudi vessels, threatening an alternative oil export route beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

The crypto market, however, was relatively calm. Bitcoin traded at $65,047.87 late on the evening of July 24 before the U.S. market opened, down only 1.6% from the prior trading day; Ethereum opened at $1,876.92, down 2.9%. Higher oil prices and new tariff policies boosted inflation expectations, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields. As a result, funds moved away from risk assets like crypto, and Bitcoin spot ETFs saw single-day net outflows of $225 million on Thursday.

Notably, this round of Bitcoin has almost “stopped trading the war.” BTC is currently hovering around $63,800; its direction is instead determined by U.S. dollar liquidity and the chip-stock cycle. By contrast, oil prices, gold, and interest rates are pricing the war. In the same period, gold fell 1.6% to about $4,050, the MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 1.6%, and the yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries rose to a high since February 2025. Across the whole escalation, Bitcoin’s drawdown was less than 2%, while oil prices rose more than 4%.

On liquidations, during the heaviest selling pressure the crypto market saw more than $350 million in liquidations in a single day. The fear and greed index briefly dropped to 26, deep in the “fear” zone, while total market capitalization fluctuated between $2.1 trillion and $2.5 trillion.

The United States will require Iran to be responsible for any further attacks by the Houthis. If that organization attacks ships again, it will face “major military punishment.”
— U.S. President Donald Trump

Rejecting a ceasefire, talks stall at Hormuz

The diplomatic track is also deadlocked. Citing a report by The New York Times, Iran rejected the ceasefire proposal put forward by Trump, though U.S. officials denied the claim. Iranian officials said Tehran has no intention of accepting a temporary deal that leaves control of the Strait of Hormuz undecided.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he has discussed a mediation initiative with Pakistan, adding that the problem between the U.S. and Iran lies with the United States itself, not a lack of mediators. Trump said that no decision has yet been made on whether to launch a major strike against Iran, and believes Iran is taking negotiations more seriously while also feeling frustrated that the conflict has dragged on too long.

With the Strait of Hormuz in focus, Iran’s news agency reported that an Oman diplomatic delegation has gone to Tehran to discuss passage mechanisms; the U.S. and the U.K. are also reportedly set to hold meetings on the security of the strait to push for the formation of a convoy escort alliance.

The U.S. is also applying additional pressure channels. The U.S. Treasury announced a new round of sanctions on Iran, and U.S. media cited intelligence assessments suggesting Iran’s new leadership may hold stronger nuclear ambitions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Washington next week and meet with Trump.

Frequently asked questions

Why didn’t the Middle East war cause a big drop in Bitcoin?

In this round of U.S.-Iran conflict, Bitcoin’s decline was less than 2% and it held around $65k, while oil prices surged more than 4%. The market believes BTC has shifted to being driven by U.S. dollar liquidity, Federal Reserve rates, and spot ETF fund flows, with noticeably reduced sensitivity to geopolitical headlines.

What impact does tension around the Strait of Hormuz have on oil prices and the crypto market?

The Strait of Hormuz is a major choke point for global oil transportation. Escalating tension drove Brent to break above $100 on July 24, reaching $100.69. Higher oil prices raise inflation expectations and push up U.S. Treasury yields, which instead pulls funds out of risk assets like Bitcoin; that day, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded single-day net outflows of $225 million.