🔥【July rate suspense turned up to the max! CME data shocks: the odds of a September rate hike are actually above 56%?】

Brothers, the newly released CME Fed Watch data is kind of interesting!
The probability of keeping the rate unchanged in July is 62.1%, but the probability of a cumulative 25 basis-point rate hike in September has surged to 56.2%!
What does this mean?——The market expects the hikes “to be delayed,” but the tightening of liquidity later this year isn’t loosening.

On-chain data also confirms it in parallel: over the past 24 hours, the net outflow of giant whales’ BTC has increased, while the amount of ETH staked has risen against the trend—funds are caught between hedging and earning yield.
Plus, the new “pet concept” project from Musk’s CTO has emerged; it’s purely community-driven, and short-term sentiment catalysts can’t be ignored.
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My take:
July may hold steady, but September is the real battleground.
If inflation keeps repeating itself, a 50-basis-point move isn’t impossible (currently 28.7%).
Near-term volatility will intensify—don’t chase rallies or sell in panic; keep your powder dry and wait for a clear direction.

Remember: the biggest opportunity is the expectation gap.
The bigger the storm, the pricier the fish.

#美联储利率 #加密市场分析 #马斯克概念 #BTC Personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice