Short Thoughts on $LPK

I've been following this company for some time and had the pleasure of speaking with the CEO
Still, I only traded the stock. I never took a long-term position
I don't think focusing too much on the latest earnings is useful. These numbers are largely irrelevant
The key theme for this company is glass substrates, and it will take a couple more years for them to penetrate the semiconductor industry meaningfully
However, I believe the most concerning issue is management credibility
1. Consecutive Overpromising
> The company missed its 2024 guidance.
> Then its 2025 guidance.
> And now it is on track to miss its 2026 guidance.
That would be three annual misses in a row
The company would need to generate twice its entire backlog of €34.7 million in revenue during H2 to meet its guidance
The writing is on the wall
Beyond guidance, the company also said it expected to receive production orders for LIDE systems in Q2
That did not happen. Management is now moving the goalposts to H2
2. TAM Dreams
Then came the big claim: a €1.7 billion TAM for advanced packaging.
Now read the fine print:
“Total addressable market, meaning in 2030, suddenly everybody switches to 100% glass and installs all the necessary equipment in the same year. That's of course not what the specifically addressable market and the obtainable market look like.”
What?
That is not even what TAM means. TAM is expressed as an annual market opportunity
This sounds more like cumulative spending across several years being presented as a yearly TAM
What’s even the point of providing such an unrealistic figure beyond creating an impressive headline?
Conclusion
These are just two observations from the latest call
Overall, I believe the company has great technology and remains the industry leader in TGV
However, management has overpromised for so many years that its current and future timelines have become difficult to trust. That is crucial when making an investment decision