FED Interest Rate Decision: Latest Developments ✨



Market expectations are largely focused on no change in interest rates.

🔹 Consensus outlook: According to surveys, 104 economists on Reuters and 76 economists on Bloomberg expect rates to remain stable between 3.50 and 3.75.
🔹 The current rate range is between 3.50 and 3.75.
🔹 Supporting data: The unexpected drop in June CPI and the weak employment report provide room for the FED to wait.
🔹 Risk of a rate hike: Futures markets are pricing in a 25 basis point increase with approximately 36-38% probability, due to rising oil prices and the lack of clear guidance from FED Chair Warsh.
🔹 Official divergence: The June FOMC minutes showed policymakers were almost equally divided on the need for future rate hikes.
🔹 In conclusion, a surprise rate hike is not impossible, but the overwhelming majority of economists expect a 0 basis point change.

The key event will be the FOMC announcement on July 28-29.
https://gate.onelink.me/Hls0/prediction?page=detail&event_ticker=287395&source=cex
Fed Decision in July?
No change
1.34x
75%
25 bps increase
3.88x
26%
$3M Vol+3 more
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