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#夏日创作营 Is the CLARITY Act in limbo? Bitcoin faces short-term pressure as the market is flashing what signals 📶
The core logic behind Bitcoin stabilizing after recent volatility mainly comes from bullish expectations that the U.S. CLARITY Act will be implemented. But right now, the bill’s progress has hit an unexpected snag and has fallen into a deadlock in bipartisan negotiations, with the market pricing the final passage probability at only 35%. Policy expectations have cooled rapidly, directly weakening market sentiment and putting noticeable short-term pressure on BTC.
Previously, the market largely expected the bill to be adopted, believing it could unify U.S. crypto regulatory rules and open a channel for institutional capital to enter—an important fundamental support for this cycle. But now, the Democratic Party refuses to cooperate, negotiations have stalled completely, and two major core disputes cannot be resolved: first, the bill has regulatory loopholes and does not restrict crypto asset trading by the relatives of public officials, creating privilege-risk; second, enforcement authority is assigned to the Justice Department appointed by the President, creating an obvious conflict of interest, with compliance widely questioned.
The time window is also drawing to a close. In August, the U.S. Congress will soon adjourn. Given the current stalemate, the bill is basically not expected to be passed within the year. If the bill is delayed, the ambiguous state of U.S. regulation will continue, shattering the compliant expectations the market had been pricing in and raising industry uncertainty again. Against the backdrop of many countries accelerating the improvement of crypto regulation, the U.S. stalling will also miss a crucial industry development window.
As for the order book signals: during this pullback, trading volume has clearly contracted. In the four-hour timeframe, short-side volume has dropped by nearly half, showing the decline is not driven by shorts actively dumping. Price weakness is more driven by longs exiting positions and taking profits. On the daily chart, a preliminary volume-price divergence is starting to show: spot buying strength has weakened, and the current move is driven more by derivatives capital. A bearish pattern over the short term is gradually becoming visible. The rebound peak this cycle is roughly around 66,900. If the rebound returns toward 66,500 and short-side volume energy again shows exhaustion by bulls, watch for opportunities in the short-side versus long-side game.
From a mid- to long-term perspective, the market will most likely maintain a wide-range sideways consolidation. The bear market is in its late stage, but that doesn’t mean a bull market will start quickly—so there’s no need to be overly aggressive on bullish bets. $BTC
The core logic behind why Bitcoin has recently stabilized after choppy trading mainly comes from bullish expectations that the U.S. CLARITY bill will be implemented. However, the bill’s progress has suddenly hit obstacles and fallen into a deadlock in bipartisan negotiations, with market estimates placing the final passage probability at only 35%. As policy expectations cool down quickly, market sentiment weakens directly, and BTC faces clear short-term pressure.
Previously, the market widely expected the bill to be rolled out, believing it could unify U.S. crypto regulatory rules and open channels for institutional capital to enter—key fundamental support for this round of the rally. But now, the Democrats are refusing to cooperate, negotiations have completely stalled, and two major core disputes cannot be resolved: first, the bill has regulatory loopholes—it does not restrict crypto asset trading by relatives of public officials, creating privilege risk; second, enforcement authority would be assigned to the Justice Department appointed by the President, creating an obvious conflict of interest, and its compliance has been heavily questioned.
The time window is also nearing its end. The U.S. Congress will be on recess in August. Given the current stalemate, the bill is basically unlikely to be implemented within the year. If the bill fails to move forward, the ambiguous state of U.S. regulation will likely persist, and the compliance expectations the market has been counting on will be completely dashed, with industry uncertainty rising again. Against the backdrop of countries around the world accelerating efforts to improve crypto regulation, the U.S. stalling will also miss the industry’s development window.
In terms of the order book: during this pullback, trading volume has clearly shrunk. In the four-hour timeframe, short-side volume has fallen by nearly half, suggesting this is not short sellers actively smashing the market.
Price declines are more driven by long positions actively exiting and profit-taking. On the daily chart, a preliminary divergence between volume and price is starting to show: spot buying pressure has weakened, and the current move relies more on derivatives-driven capital. A bearish pattern is gradually taking shape in the short term. The likely rebound high is around 66,900. If the rebound returns to around 66,500 and long-side momentum shows signs of exhaustion again, watch for opportunities from the short side’s contest.
From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the market will most likely maintain broad range-bound volatility. The bear market is in its late stage, but that does not mean a bull run will start quickly—there’s no need to be overly aggressive in bullish positioning. $BTC