Galaxy Research’s head of research has reduced the probability of the U.S. CLARITY bill passing in 2026 to about 30%.

PANews July 24 news: Galaxy research head Alex Thorn said in a post that his probability estimate for the U.S. crypto bill CLARITY being passed in 2026 has been cut to about 30%. He described the bill as helpful for refining the regulatory framework, protecting investors, and promoting U.S. domestic innovation and growth, but noted that there are currently not enough votes in Congress and the legislative window is narrowing. Thorn called for an end to the small-scale brinkmanship and launched a “last-ditch push,” urging Congress leadership to move quickly to put CLARITY to a vote and pass the bill.

The U.S. Senate on Wednesday this week released the final CLARITY Act text after merging the versions from the Agriculture and Banking committees. The full package is 616 pages, with four chapters. It adds ethics constraints on government officials’ crypto holdings, enforcement provisions to crack down on “pig-butchering” schemes, and more, while retaining key content such as developer protections, the right to self-custody, restrictions on stablecoin yield, and regulation of tokenized securities. Multiple Democratic senators issued a joint statement saying the current text is “still insufficient” in areas including ethics, consumer protection, and anti–money laundering, and opposition within the Democratic Party is growing. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said that completing a vote before the summer recess “is unlikely.”