Coinbase Institutional: Neutral outlook for the 2026 Q3 crypto market, with macro pressure and on-chain signals diverging

Deep Tide TechFlow message: On July 24, Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released 《Charting Crypto Q3 2026》, a report that maintains a neutral outlook for the crypto market. The report shows that on-chain data indicate Bitcoin may be shifting from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, weak spot ETF demand, and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on market prospects.

The report notes that the total market capitalization of the crypto market, excluding stablecoins, fell by about 12% in 2026’s second quarter. At the same time, stablecoin supply rose to a historical high, suggesting that some funds may be moving into stablecoins for temporary risk hedging rather than fully exiting the crypto market.

In addition, the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market continues to decline. Its 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell from 0.58 in Q4 2025 to 0.12, while its correlation with gold rose to 0.57—indicating that its trading characteristics are becoming more like a value-storing asset sensitive to interest rates and liquidity.

On fund flows, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows in the first half of 2026, but the rate of outflows slowed, suggesting that demand may be stabilizing. For Ethereum, the report says it has returned to a full capitulation range: as of the end of the second quarter, the average holder is sitting on an unrealized loss.

The report concludes that currently, macro conditions and on-chain data are sending diverging signals, and the market still needs to remain patient and cautious.