July 24 strategy suggestions and market scenario

Weekly market recap:
There are signs of stagnation on the Ethereum daily chart (pressure around 1950) and the KDJ has formed a death cross, so shorts could enter at any time; on the 12-hour chart, shorts have already entered, and upward momentum is weak.

However, the weekly chart still has upside momentum. This current upwave is 1802-1956. A deep pullback to around 1860 is exactly where the 618 level held, and on the 1-hour chart the bulls are about to enter. For the current position, we should focus on short longs. Specifically, watch whether 1895-1898 can reclaim and hold; if it can’t, price may continue down to test 1860, or even trigger a daily-chart short-led decline.

Next week market scenario:
The 4-hour 4th wave rally has already completed, and the weekly mid-band is almost reached. If this week can’t push higher, next week bulls may lack momentum and daily shorts are likely to take action.

Also, on July 30 there is a rate decision meeting. If things stay unchanged, there’s a high probability it will go down first and then up to enable institutional buy-side demand. The big whales in the group reminded us that by the end of the month before the 28th, this rally could end at any time, which matches our inference. Next week, our task may be to chase opens higher and go short as the main idea—mainly because it’s already daily-short territory. Once our shorts have consumed enough, we then look to catch longs. Most of what we do is trades within the daily timeframe, so we should try to follow the direction of the 4-hour and 12-hour charts.

*One more thing: if this month-end or early next month hits the low point, it could be this year’s bottom. For spot and coin-basis longs, you can probe the lows: BTC 62000, ETH 1666 and 1756. Around the 9月 or 12月 rate cuts in this year’s fourth quarter, it will look hawkish on the surface but be dovish in reality.*