BTC worth $65,300, and the bears are already hyped

BTC is now around $65,300, up 13% from the July low of $57,750, but it’s still 48% away from the all-time high of $126,200.

It’s down 25% this year, and down 45% over the past year.

Is it惨吗? It’s惨.

But when you pull the candlesticks farther apart—you see BTC doing something every bear market end has been doing over the past 10 years: consolidating at the highs, refusing to make new lows.

First: mining pools went under, but this is a positive.

You heard right. Poolin has filed for bankruptcy.

Retail’s reaction to this news is: “Miners can’t hold on anymore—BTC is going to crash!”

Whenever miners massively exit, it’s the bottom-range area for BTC.

In 2022, Core Scientific went bankrupt, and BTC rose from 16,000 to 30,000.

In 2024, multiple small mining sites shut down, and BTC rose from 39,000 to 73,000.

In 2026, Poolin falls—so what do you think comes next?

Second: the whales are quietly accumulating, while retail is panicking.

Over the past two weeks, whales have accumulated about 270k BTC, with an average cost around $53,000.

From early July to today, BTC has bounced from $57,750 to $65,300—who pulled this rebound?



SOPR (realized profit/loss ratio) has turned positive

Long-term holders are unmoving—basically nobody is selling

Exchange BTC balances keep falling—supply is shrinking

Third: FOMC is coming, and rate-hike clouds are gathering.

On July 28-29, the FOMC meets.

Oil prices have surged to $100, inflation stickiness is above expectations, and rate-hike bets are rising.

Tech stocks crashed, the Magnificent 7 kept dropping—yet BTC has held around $65,000.

This signal is very important.

Previously, BTC and tech stocks rose and fell together—now they’re starting to decouple. If tech drops 3%, BTC only drops 0.5%. BTC’s resilience is increasing, and capital is looking for a safe haven.

If the FOMC is dovish, BTC could take off directly. If hawkish, BTC might retest $62,000-$63,000

Bull-bear battle, you decide for yourself

Bears say：

The Fed may hike rates, and high rates suppress risk assets

Oil breaks $100—inflation comes roaring back

Tech stocks plunge—risk appetite worsens

ETF outflows of $225 million in a single day—institutions are cutting positions

Down 48% from the all-time high—bear-market structure unchanged

Bulls say：

Whales have accumulated 270k BTC in two weeks, average cost $53,000

Mining pool bankruptcy = miner surrender = a historic bottom signal

Daily candles hold above the 50-day moving average, and short-term MAs are already in a bullish alignment

BTC decouples from tech stocks and runs an independent setup

Bouncing 13% from $57,750—the trend has turned bullish

Long-term holders aren’t selling—supply keeps declining

Key levels

Resistance overhead: $65,500-$65,800 → $66,500-$67,000 (breakout = reversal signal) → $68,000-$70,000

Support below: $64,000 (short-term lifeline) → $62,800-$63,000 → $61,000-$62,000

For short-term traders：

Buy lightly on dips in the $64,000-$64,500 range, stop loss below $63,000, targets $65,800-$66,500.

For mid-term traders：

Build positions in batches from $62,000-$64,000, target $70,000+. If stronger rate-hike expectations lead to a break below $62,000, wait for $58,000-$60,000 to add again.

For long-term believers：

Keep DCA. The smart money’s average cost is $53,000. Buying at $65,000 now isn’t much more expensive than the whales. The target by end of 2026 is $80,000-$100,000, betting that the rate-cut cycle returns + ETF inflows continue + after the halving, supply shortages tighten.

BTC now looks like tech stocks at the start of 2023— 99% of people think “the AI bubble has burst,” and the result is Nvidia going from 140 to 800. #英特尔Q2营收创15年最快增速 #Gate event contract launch party #Summer Creative Camp $BTC $ETH $SOL