7/24 Comprehensive Market Analysis

😇News/Market Pulse:

Regulatory update: The Senate Republican Party released the latest draft of the CLARITY Act, adding new crypto ethics restriction provisions targeting public officials and their spouses. The market initially expected the bill to advance before the Congress summer recess, but multiple reports suggest it may miss the window; the next key milestone points to around August 10. Goldman Sachs CEO publicly stated support for the bill, saying it will help stabilize the market, but Democrats still have objections. Regulatory uncertainty continues to suppress short-term risk appetite.

Macro environment: US stocks are under pressure due to concerns about AI investment and geopolitical tensions; overall risk assets sentiment remains cautious, and Bitcoin follows with volatility.

On-chain/Whales/Holder behavior: In July, whales still net accumulated about 270k BTC overall. Long-term holder supply remains at a high level, indicating that strong players’ confidence has not been fully shaken, but there is a lack of new short-term catalysts.

😇Capital Flows:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs: On July 23, they recorded net outflows of about $225.1M. BlackRock’s IBIT led the redemptions, and Fidelity and others also saw outflows. This ends the prior streak of net inflows over multiple days.

Cumulative YTD net inflows still remain at a high level (around +$52B), but the large single-day outflow reflects profit-taking and a cooling in sentiment.

Exchange reserves and whale activity still lean toward accumulation, but ETF capital has turned to net selling in the short term, creating direct pressure on price.

😇Technical Analysis:

Yesterday, we mentioned to watch the risks at the 4h level and below. Yesterday’s move did a pullback, but it pulled back to 65,000 and still did not break down effectively.

At present, the daily chart remains dominated by sideways upward movement. Intraday, watch for a second dip on the 1h level; if the pullback does not break 64,800, the uptrend will continue. Tomorrow is the weekend, and price action may mainly focus on range-bound repair.

This year’s market has truly been hard for bulls: rallies are slow and grinding, while selloffs are chaotic and abrupt. With this still being a volatile year, dollar-cost averaging remains the main approach.

Support: 64,800-64,000
Resistance: 65,800-66,900