Analysis: Bitcoin’s realized loss peak in this cycle is 19% higher than in 2022, and the sell pressure has fallen by 56% from its peak.

PANews July 24, an analyst at CryptoQuant Axel Adler Jr. said that Bitcoin’s realized loss 30-day moving average peaked at $1.37 billion on February 20, which is 19% higher than the 2022 cycle peak ($1.15 billion), setting a historical high. As of July 23, the metric had fallen 56.5% from the peak to $597 million, indicating that selling pressure has weakened significantly. The realized profit 30-day moving average dropped from a $3.51 billion peak on December 10, 2024 to $257 million, a decline of 92.7%. Although it has rebounded 34.7% from the June low, the recovery speed is far slower than the speed at which losses have declined.

The current profit-to-loss ratio has risen from the cycle low of 0.26 to 0.43, but it is still far below the balance line of 1. By contrast, in the 2022 cycle the lowest profit-to-loss ratio had touched 0.13, suggesting that the current market’s relative pressure depth is lower than in 2022. The analyst noted that while the acute phase of panic selling has passed, a market reversal has not been confirmed yet—whether the profit-to-loss ratio can move toward 1 and whether realized profits can continue rising to above $400–$500 million remains to be seen. The main risk is that if Bitcoin falls below the June low of $58,535, it could trigger a new round of accelerated losses.