Focus on Bitcoin near 65,500 and the pressure level around 1,913 on Ethereum; once price rejects and is under pressure at that level, you can enter a short position.

At the moment, oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar are all rising. Logically, risk assets will definitely face pressure.

We need to focus on one thing in particular: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision:

Federal Reserve meeting schedule: the rate decision will be released at 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday, July 30.

II. The current three major macro pressure factors (oil prices, US Treasuries, and the dollar)

1. Brent crude breaks $100 → risk of an inflation rebound rises

International Brent crude oil futures have risen to $100 per barrel.
Oil prices are a core driver of global inflation. A sharp rise in oil prices will directly push up overall US prices, increasing pressure on the Fed to fight inflation. The market will then anticipate that the Fed may find it harder to cut rates, or even restart rate hikes.

2. 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 4.7%

US Treasury yields are the global assets pricing “risk-free benchmark interest rate”:
Yields rising = the market expects future inflation/interest rates to be higher, so funds flow out of risk assets such as stocks, crypto, and gold, suppressing prices of all overvalued assets.

3. The US Dollar Index rises above 101

A stronger dollar means global dollar liquidity tightening:
Global capital will return to the US, and emerging markets, crypto markets, and commodities will face selling pressure from capital outflows—putting all kinds of risk assets under pressure.

III. CME Fed watch: rate-hike probability data

The CME “Fed Watch” tool is a core market instrument used to trade Fed interest rate expectations. Current pricing:

1. Rate hike of 25 bps next week: 37.9% (close to 40%)
2. Hold rates unchanged: 62.1%
3. The market completely rules out the possibility of rate cuts

In short: the market’s mainstream expectation is still for no rate hike. However, with oil prices, US Treasuries, and the US dollar all turning into triple bearish factors for inflation, the probability of a rate hike has already been lifted to nearly 40%. A rate hike is no longer a low-probability black swan event.

IV. The logic chain linking the three

Oil prices rise → inflation expectations rebound → market bets the Fed won’t ease
→ Funds sell US Treasuries, Treasury yields rise
→ The dollar becomes more attractive and the dollar strengthens
→ Global liquidity contracts; stocks, crypto, and commodities face pressure
→ Further increases the market’s probability of pricing in Fed rate hikes

V. Summary of the impact on crypto/financial markets

1. Near-term bearish risk for risk assets: both US Treasury yields and the dollar are rising; funds will reduce holdings of crypto and stocks;
2. Key observation point: the Fed’s decision in the early hours of July 30. If there’s an unexpected 25bp hike, global risk assets will see a sharp pullback; if rates are kept unchanged but the Fed’s guidance is more hawkish, the market will still face pressure;
3. Oil prices are the core variable this round: if crude oil continues to hold above $100, the probability of another rate hike in September will keep rising.