In the Bitcoin trading circles, the four-year halving cycle is almost enshrined as an unshakable rule of law.

Looking back at the three market runs in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the market has always followed the supply contraction logic brought by halving: a bull run over three years to build momentum, and a bear market over one year to clear out. Based on historical patterns, the theoretical cycle bottom in this round has only three months left.

But the real bottom has never been a specific day fixed on the calendar—it’s a prolonged stretch of suffering, filled with liquidity drying up, chain liquidations, and the cleansing of positions. Staring at time to predict the bottom makes it easy to end up with distorted execution, leading to major losses.

Mature traders never obsess over guessing the bottom time; they only weigh the risk-reward ratio and seize opportunities where risk and reward become imbalanced.
Across history, there have been only three to four complete halving cycles, with a very small sample size. Today, many people openly say the four-year cycle has already stopped working. Spot ETFs have launched, large amounts of institutional capital have poured in, and on top of that, the Federal Reserve rate cycle is deeply intertwined with the market’s pricing—completely rewriting the old market logic driven mainly by retail participants and powered only by the halving.

Here are two trading maxims for everyone:
Do good deeds along the way: strictly control losses within what you can bear, build positions in batches, keep funding routes open for retreat, and never use high leverage that would affect your daily life.
Don’t ask about the future: accept the market’s inherent uncertainty and don’t speculate about bottom levels based on your own expectations.

The four-year cycle may still work, or it may be fundamentally rebuilt in this round. But as long as your risk-control system is good enough, we don’t need to rely on predicting the market to survive long term $BTC $ETH #Gate事件合约首发狂欢