#布伦特原油重返100美元 “Double Gorges resonance” consequences: Oil prices surge to $100

Yesterday, after Yemen’s Houthi forces launched attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Strait of Mandeb, global energy markets fell into panic, with Brent crude rising rapidly to more than $100 per barrel.
Since Trump announced on July 7 that the U.S. would resume combat against Iran, this month’s cumulative increase in crude oil prices has reached 40%. U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Rubio both expressed disappointment with the Houthis’ actions, saying they were dragged in by Iran.
Trump posted on his social platform “Truth Social,” saying, “Iran will face severe military strikes—and, of course, the Houthis themselves will not escape punishment. I’m very disappointed in them.” Rubio said to reporters in the Philippines that day that it was wrong for the Houthis to threaten Red Sea shipping and fight in the Middle East on Iran’s behalf: “They were fooled by the Iranians.” In the early stages of the war with Iran, the Houthis were basically on standby and were also viewed by outsiders as another ace in Iran’s hands, not likely to be used lightly unless absolutely necessary.
The Houthis said the attacked tankers were the “Enseria” and “Lila.” Maritime monitoring firm Kpler lists these two ships as Saudi vessels. However, Rubio said that one of the ships that was hit was flying a 🇨🇳 flag at the time. Rubio’s emphasis obviously serves a purpose—it aims to apply additional pressure from 🇨🇳 on Iran and its proxies.
“Double Gorges resonance” further worsened the global oil supply chain. Earlier, Ukraine carried out large-scale attacks on Russian refineries, plunging the global oil market into chaos; shortages of diesel and gasoline have been even more severe.
UN Secretary-General Guterres warned that the Middle East situation “is getting out of control,” that “it’s time to take a step back,” and that “all sides’ fighting must stop.” He emphasized that freedom of navigation must be restored—“diplomacy is the only way out.”
But now the UN’s role is minimal, and how much weight do Guterres’ words carry? Trump said he is considering what would be the largest-scale bombing of Iran to date, and that he may make a final decision soon. Trump also said in a recent post that the U.S. would use “Iranian funds it holds” to compensate for losses to ships and cargo. He wrote: “From now on, any losses caused to ships and cargo will be paid for with Iranian funds owned and controlled by the United States.” According to reports, at least $100 billion in assets has been frozen by the United States and its Gulf states.
When the U.S. and Iran signed the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” on June 17, Iran had expected the U.S. to quickly agree to unfreeze in stages the $24B it holds in Qatar. But that hope quickly collapsed.
In response to Trump’s latest threats, RezaeI, a military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, said Trump has shifted from “madman” to “desperate person.” He added that U.S. attacks on pilgrims and attacks on Iran’s infrastructure are a display of desperation and helplessness—this is Trump’s fatal mistake.

Re-imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is a double-edged sword. After the Houthis announced a blockade of the Strait of Mandeb, the spillover effect quickly formed, and its impact on global oil prices has been immediate. Iran’s chief negotiator and parliamentary speaker Kalibaf mocked the U.S.’s latest military strategy: “They want to punish Iran, but end up punishing themselves because of a three-digit oil price.” Although the latest assessments by the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency both believe that the bombing the U.S. is carrying out is unlikely to change Iran’s position.
But Trump is caught in a difficult spot and is still considering launching an even larger strike against Iran in order to save the ego of “Dumb King.” Last month, Trump said he would not consider resuming the war with Iran unless U.S. soldiers suffered casualties. But Trump broke his word: on July 7 he ordered the resumption of the war with Iran, and the latest deaths of four U.S. servicemen all occurred after that point in time. With results becoming the cause and causes becoming the result, Trump is hard to extricate himself from the war cycle. In a speech at yesterday’s U.S. Environmental Protection Agency event, Trump stressed that he has no interest in resuming negotiations with Iran, and that Iran has not been ready to negotiate so far. Iran still needs to be hit a few more times before it will behave.
However, Trump is changeable—who could possibly read his mind? Yesterday, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia just signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement; today Trump changed course. A White House spokesperson emphasized that if Saudi Arabia does not sign the “Abraham Accords” (note: establishing diplomatic relations with Israel), the nuclear cooperation agreement would be void. The “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” signed last month soon became a piece of scrap paper, and the 30-year U.S.-Saudi nuclear energy cooperation agreement signed yesterday was also temporarily attached with conditions and may become scrap paper as well—this is the U.S.’s national credit score right now. Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Defense revised the latest death toll for the Iran war. It said that the death toll since July 7 cannot be put in the same basket with the Iran war that began on February 28; that war ended on April 7.
In the author’s view, this is nothing more than a word game. It cannot change the fact that the Iran war has not truly ended. Behind the numbers of the dead are tragedies for each family. Only if the U.S. and Iran return to the negotiating table can tragedies be avoided—and only then can the world economy avoid becoming a “hostage” to a Middle East war. #夏日创作营