Rising U.S. oil prices have driven rate-hike bets up to 33.7%. Amid heightened tensions involving Iran, tech stocks have fallen 20%. Analysts say that as geopolitical risk from Iran escalates, oil prices are surging, pushing the market’s expectations for further increases in U.S. interest rates. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan estimates that in the coming weeks, U.S. retail gasoline prices could rise to $4.15–$4.25 per gallon. The rebound has already spilled into the bond market: the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen to 4.66%, while the 30-year yield remains above 5%, putting pressure on growth assets that rely on low financing costs. Based on market data, Fed funds futures currently price the probability of future rate hikes at 33.7%, up sharply from 25.7% last week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has fallen by more than 20%, entering a technical bear market; higher rates are weighing heavily on tech stocks that were driven by the U.S. bull market over the past four years.