- Worldcoin price outlook: WLD price stabilizes with several bullish signals appearing:

Worldcoin’s price stabilized near $0.3838 on Thursday, with a high of $0.4141, according to the 50-day exponential moving average.
The WLD token unlock rate is set to drop by 43% on Friday under the unlock schedules, reducing token emissions and easing sell-side pressure.
Demand in the retail sector remained strong, with trading volume up 40% and a positive funding rate.

Worldcoin (WLD) is trading at about $0.3838 at the time of this writing on Thursday, continuing a tightly ranging trend without reclaiming the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.4141. It is expected that WLD token issuance will fall by 43% versus Friday, which will ease supply pressure. Retail activity in WLD derivatives remains strong, with trading volume up 40% and elevated funding rates.

Softening the challenges facing Worldcoin
The Worldcoin platform is preparing to cut its daily token emissions by 43% on Friday. The community-escrowed token emission rate will fall by 50%, from 3.2 million WLD to 1.6 million WLD, while emissions for the team and investors will drop by 32%, from 1.9 million WLD to 1.3 million WLD. As a result, total emissions will decline from roughly 5.1 million WLD to 2.9 million WLD. Typically, a reduction in new token supply helps relieve market supply pressure.

In addition, Grayscale filed an S-1 for a WLD-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF), which could boost institutional demand if approved.

On the retail trading front, speculation in WLD derivatives remains high. CoinGlass data shows trading volume up 40% over the past 24 hours, reaching $396.25 million, while the notional value of active perpetual contracts stays steady, with open positions remaining at $290.17 million. At the same time, the funding rate remains positive at 0.0077%, reflecting a bullish bias among traders.

WLD derivatives data. Source: CoinGlass
Jake Kennes, head of research at Nansen, told FXStreet: “Cutting the unlock rate by 43% reduces daily emissions by roughly 2.2 million WLD tokens, while Grayscale’s spot ETF demand opens an organized demand channel.” Kennes added: “If the ETF is approved and attracts inflows, which would shrink the new supply and meet the needs of a new pool of buyers, it could lead to a real tightening in the supply-demand balance if demand is high enough.”

Alongside the ETF decision and reduced supply, Kennes noted that “expanding the World Chain, full decentralization of the network, targeted for late 2026, scaling the ecosystem, launching Orbs, and real-world integrations with commercial payment partnerships” would help increase demand for WLD tokens. However, regulatory developments related to biometric identity remain the biggest existential risk facing the project.

Can Worldcoin regain its bullish momentum?
Worldcoin’s price is consolidating below both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, keeping the near-term downtrend intact. Technically, WLD’s price is ranging between the 50-day EMA at $0.4141 and a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the upside from $0.2267 to $0.27229, at $0.3438.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is hovering slightly above the signal line, suggesting accumulation momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 44 shows a bullish divergence, with a higher bottom forming at the lowest levels of July 1 and 19.

A decisive close above $0.4141 could test the 200-day EMA resistance level at $0.4654 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.4748. If WLD breaks above this zone, a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.6167 may appear as the next downside target.

Technical analysis of the WLD/USDT pair (Binance)
Daily price chart of the WLD/USDT pair.
Looking lower, WLD’s key support is at $0.3438, where a sustained close could extend its decline to the Fibonacci level at $0.2267.
$WLD