Breaking news! Musk responds positively to the SpaceX merger for the first time. Analysts overnight increase the probability to 90%—hidden behind Tesla’s financial report is a trillion-dollar signal

Listen, I just crawled this out of the audio recording from a quarterly earnings call. That guy Musk—he’s finally not hiding.

Right on Wednesday, during Tesla’s quarterly earnings call, someone asked directly: does merging Tesla and SpaceX actually have strategic significance? In the past, Musk would either dodge or pretend he didn’t hear. But this time, he addressed it head-on. He said the two sides’ cooperation is deepening, the overlap is growing, and he even specifically mentioned the Terafab project—that’s a truly massive-scale engineering effort.

This is a signal. After listening, Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management immediately posted on X, saying he raised the probability of the two companies merging over the next few years from 80% to 90%. He said it was surprising, in itself, that management was willing to discuss it on the call.

Don’t think this is just gossip. On the business side, integration is already accelerating: Grok AI is being integrated into Tesla vehicles, the digital Optimus robot project is moving forward, and the Starlink satellite network is set to provide connectivity for the Cybercab and future models—especially to solve the Robotaxi problem in cellular signal dead zones. Musk’s exact words were: “We can’t let Robotaxi get stuck in the Bermuda Triangle of these cellular signal dead zones.” The satellite connectivity solution is key infrastructure for commercializing his automated driving mobility network.

Now let’s talk money. Tesla’s second-quarter earnings report is a mixed bag. Revenue was $28.24 billion, above the market expectation of $25.71 billion. Deliveries were 480k, up 25% year over year, hitting an all-time high. But earnings per share were only 33 cents, far below analysts’ forecast of 50 cents. Profit fell short of expectations; the stock price fell 1.3% on Wednesday’s close and then fell another 4.13% after hours.

Benzinga’s rating data shows Tesla’s momentum score is in the 36th percentile, while its growth score is in the 88th percentile. Growth is still there, but the market has become noticeably more cautious about how quickly profits will be absorbed.

So what you’re seeing now is: a high-growth company under pressure on earnings suddenly has merger expectations with SpaceX. On the call, Musk said any push forward must go through proper processes and kicked questions to the legal team. But Gene Munster’s assessment is already out there—something is likely to happen in the coming years.

What direct impact does this have on $BTC and $ETH ? At the moment, it looks like indirect sentiment spillover. Musk is a die-hard supporter of $DOGE , and Tesla also holds $BTC. If after a Tesla–SpaceX merger Musk’s tech empire is further amplified, his influence in the crypto community will only get stronger. Starlink does the satellite network, Grok does AI, Optimus does robots—these all require use cases involving decentralized ledgers, smart contracts, and crypto payments. The logic chain: a bigger ecosystem = deeper deployment = potential expansion of crypto demand.

But don’t rush in. Earnings data already tells you the earnings pressure is real. The merger expectation is a long-term narrative, and in the short term the stock is still down after hours. Given the current market environment, I assign a weight of 0.2 to this event—neutral to slightly bullish, but not enough to change the current direction.

Friends in retail, remember this: the valuation premium a narrative provides ultimately has to be earned through profits. Musk’s skill at selling a vision has never disappointed anyone in twenty years—but every time you have to wait for the cake to actually bake, you still have to get through a few rounds of turbulence.

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#Gate事件合约首发狂欢 # Summer Creation Camp #GOOGL strong earnings but fell over 3% after hours $BTC $ETH $SOL