SpaceX sees its IPO hit a new low, while Nvidia rises 2% against the trend: how does the divergence in tech stocks affect the crypto market?

In the early hours of July 23 Beijing time, all three major US stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,218.58 points, down 0.01%; the Nasdaq closed at 25,690.90 points, down 0.57%; and the S&P 500 closed at 7,498.96 points, down 0.14%. The declines were relatively limited across all three indexes, but intraday volatility was significant—the Dow was up as much as 286 points in the morning, then all of those gains were wiped out and it closed slightly lower.

The main force dragging the broader market came from large-cap technology stocks. The Wind U.S. Technology “Magnificent Seven” index fell 0.48%, including Meta Platforms down 2.58%, Microsoft down 1.86%, Google down 1.24%, Tesla down 1.30%, Amazon down 1.09%, and Apple down 0.56%. The “Magnificent Seven” index as a whole fell about 1%.

Counterbalancing it was the strong performance of the energy sector. Driven by a surge in international oil prices—Brent crude futures rose 3.36% to $94.07 per barrel, while WTI crude rose 2.95% to $86.83 per barrel—energy stocks rose across the board. Exxon Mobil rose 1.83%, and Occidental Petroleum rose 1.79%. Bank stocks also mostly moved higher, with Goldman Sachs up 1.16%. Gains in the energy and financial sectors partially offset the decline in technology stocks, leaving the three major indexes to ultimately close only slightly lower.

The deeper drivers behind this pattern lie in oil prices and geopolitics. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said Iran is “not serious” about negotiations, and tensions between the U.S. and Iran have remained high. High oil prices lift inflation expectations, which in turn affects how the market prices the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Amid the interplay of macro uncertainty and sector-specific structural forces, U.S. stocks have displayed the typical characteristics of “weak indexes, strong divergence.”

SpaceX drops below its IPO price within a month of listing—what valuation logic is behind the new lows?

SpaceX was one of the most watched individual stocks during July 22 trading. The stock fell 6.70%, to $115.26, setting a new closing low since its June listing. This price is about 14.6% lower than the $135 IPO offer price. Since setting a closing high on June 16, SpaceX’s market value has shrunk by about $860B.

SpaceX’s continued decline is not driven by a single event, but by the overlay of multiple structural factors. First, in the early stage of listing, the float was under 5%. After it was quickly added to the Nasdaq 100, passive funds were forced to buy, artificially creating a short-lived “short squeeze”行情. As market sentiment returned to rationality, the valuation bubble began to deflate. Second, the company’s fundamentals faced pressure—revenue in Q1 2026 is below $4.7 billion, with growth slowing from 33% in 2025 to 15.4%, and single-quarter net losses of $4.28B. Third, there are significant concerns about the upcoming massive stock unlock—starting in August this year, a large batch of restricted shares will be released in stages. In addition, short sellers hold about one-third of the float, and short pressure has been sustained.

SpaceX’s case reveals the market’s core anxiety about overvalued tech stocks: when grand narratives meet real financial data and liquidity pressure, valuation re-pricing often happens in a dramatic way. For companies that rely on debt financing to drive AI infrastructure investment, the market is re-evaluating their risk-reward ratio.

Nvidia rises 2.3% against the trend—can the independent logic for AI hardware keep outperforming the broader market?

Against the backdrop of broad pressure on large-cap tech stocks, Nvidia rose 2.30% against the trend, closing at $212.06. The stock rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with a cumulative gain of about 4.5%. Nvidia was the only stock among the “Magnificent Seven” to record a notable increase, becoming the best-performing tech heavyweight on the day.

Nvidia’s outperformance has fundamental support. The company recently announced that its Vera Rubin platform is expanding deployment globally, and CoreWeave, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, and others have started adopting the Vera Rubin NVL72 system. The market is refocusing on the ongoing expansion of AI compute demand and GPU application areas. After chip stocks saw a sharp pullback recently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 13% in July, and some Wall Street firms believe the timing to enter has arrived.

The sharp surge in Super Micro Computer further confirms the independent logic for AI hardware. The stock jumped nearly 20%, and the company expects fourth-quarter gross margin of 15% to 17%, far above the prior estimate of 8.2% to 8.4%. It also disclosed new orders exceeding $60 billion. Dell Technologies also rose 9% in tandem.

The strength of Nvidia and Super Micro Computer suggests that AI hardware demand strength has not reversed despite the broader market pullback. The market is pricing the AI industry chain more precisely—continued demand for compute infrastructure certainty is still being recognized, while AI narratives lacking a clear path to profitability face more stringent scrutiny.

Alphabet beats expectations in its earnings report but falls more than 4% after hours—how does the “double-edged sword” effect of AI capital expenditures play out?

After the close on July 22, Alphabet released its Q2 2026 earnings report. Revenue of $119.8 billion and earnings per share of $9.11 both beat market expectations. The cloud business segment recorded its best-ever quarterly growth. However, after the report, Alphabet’s share price once fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.

The direct reason for the negative market reaction was a significant upward revision to capital expenditure guidance. Alphabet raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $195 billion to $205 billion, up by $15 billion from the prior estimate. For the first time, AI investment made the company’s free cash flow turn negative on a quarterly basis. Analysts pointed out that the market still has uncertainty about AI; sustained spending in the near term will increase operating costs and affect investor confidence.

Tesla faces a similar dilemma. The company’s Q2 revenue was $28.24 billion, up 26% year over year and above market expectations, but adjusted EPS fell 18% year over year to $0.33. After investing $5.8 billion in capital expenditure to expand AI and robotics businesses, free cash flow turned negative for the first time in more than two years. After the earnings release, Tesla’s after-hours share price fell by more than 4%.

The cases of Alphabet and Tesla highlight the core contradiction in the current tech stock market: AI spending is eroding short-term earnings quality, while the market’s patience regarding the payoff cycle is narrowing. Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial, summarized this logic precisely: “The market’s optimism about AI remains, but management now has to come up with real proof. Future earnings calls will increasingly focus on return on invested capital, not AI ambition.”

Is capital spillover out of Tech happening? Can the crypto market absorb the rotating liquidity?

The combined pressure on the “Magnificent Seven” and the independent strength in AI hardware together form a complex picture of capital flows. From a macro perspective, high-valued AI tech stocks that continued to attract capital throughout the first half of 2026 are beginning to show clear signs of pullback, while crypto assets that had lagged in performance earlier have recently displayed some rebound momentum.

Historical experience suggests that when the stock market tops out or enters high-range consolidation, it is often when traditional capital starts to spill over into the crypto market. As a “super amplifier” of global liquidity, crypto naturally has high Beta characteristics and tends to be lagged. When traditional tech stock valuations are already elevated and marginal returns from incremental capital diminish, some risk capital begins to search for new allocation directions.

The current market environment has some conditions for capital rotation: the differentiated landscape during mega-cap earnings season is reshaping risk appetite; the “double-edged sword” effect of AI capital expenditures causes some investors to re-evaluate the reasonableness of tech stock valuations; and after prior adjustments, crypto assets are relatively more attractive on valuation. However, capital rotation is not a linear process—if AI capital expenditure slows and evolves into systemic deleveraging, the crypto market could face deeper liquidity pressure.

What changes are happening to the correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin? How is the crypto market pricing the US earnings season?

The correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin is a key indicator for understanding cross-market capital flows. Between 2025 and 2026, Bitcoin showed a strong positive correlation with both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index, with correlation coefficients as high as 0.88 in certain trading windows. Crypto assets have repeatedly demonstrated sensitivity to broad equity momentum.

Recently, this correlation has been showing changes worth watching. Since July 1, Bitcoin is up by about 9%, while the Nasdaq is down by about 6%. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for multiple consecutive days. This divergence suggests that the crypto market is gradually moving away from the short-term drag of US tech and is carving out a relatively independent trend.

Bitcoin has moved alongside AI-themed equities throughout the month, because both are driven by the same risk appetite, and Bitcoin miners have shifted into operating AI data centers. This fundamental link makes the relationship between the two markets more complex: the expansion of AI capital expenditures could create pressure on crypto markets through capital diversion, but it could also indirectly benefit the crypto ecosystem by boosting miner revenues and AI infrastructure demand.

The impact of the US earnings season on the crypto market mainly shows up in risk appetite. When tech stocks beat earnings expectations but their prices fall due to concerns over capital expenditures, the market’s core contradiction is “the quality of growth” rather than “growth itself.” The same logic applies to crypto assets—market patience for overvalued assets is broadly shrinking, and both traditional tech stocks and crypto assets need clearer paths to profits to support valuations.

From TradFi to Crypto: how does cross-market observation fit into crypto investors’ decision framework?

For participants in the crypto market, the US tech earnings season and sector rotation are becoming unavoidable macro variables. The capital expenditure decisions of the “Magnificent Seven” directly affect the timing of AI infrastructure investment, which then influences crypto miners’ operating costs and the pace of compute expansion. Cloud business growth and AI spending plans from companies like Alphabet and Microsoft, as well as Amazon, also reflect to some extent how compute demand is being priced.

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The value of cross-market observation lies in helping investors build a more complete macro narrative framework. When the Nasdaq is under pressure but Bitcoin holds up relatively well, understanding the drivers of their divergence is more decision-relevant than simply focusing on price fluctuations. The differentiated pattern during the tech earnings season, the marginal changes in AI capital expenditures, and the impact of geopolitical risk on oil prices—these variables in traditional financial markets are increasingly directly influencing the crypto market’s risk appetite and capital flow direction.

Summary

On July 22, US stock market close showed a typical pattern of “weak indexes, strong divergence.” The three major indexes closed slightly lower, but the differences inside sectors were significant: SpaceX fell more than 6% to set a new post-listing low, reflecting continued market pressure for valuation re-pricing of overvalued tech stocks. Nvidia rose 2.3% against the trend, showing that the independent positive cycle logic for AI hardware is still ongoing. Alphabet and Tesla both fell after hours despite beating expectations, revealing the market’s deeper concern that AI capital expenditures are eroding earnings quality.

For the crypto market, the differentiated tech earnings landscape is reshaping cross-market risk appetite and capital flow direction. The correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin shows a phase-level divergence, and crypto assets have displayed some resilience amid pressure in the US tech sector. Understanding this cross-market transmission mechanism can help crypto investors build a more systematic decision framework between macro narratives and micro data.

FAQ

Q: What were the specific closing figures for the three major US stock indexes on July 22?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,218.58 points, down 0.01%; the Nasdaq closed at 25,690.90 points, down 0.57%; and the S&P 500 closed at 7,498.96 points, down 0.14%.

Q: Why has SpaceX’s share price continued to set new lows since listing?

SpaceX fell 6.70% to $115.26, about 14.6% lower than the $135 IPO offer price. The main reasons include: a very small float in the early listing stage leading to a valuation bubble; slower fundamental growth and continued losses; pressure from a large number of share unlocks coming in August; and persistent selling pressure driven by a high proportion of short positions.

Q: Why did Nvidia manage to rise against the trend while tech stocks broadly fell?

Nvidia rose 2.30% to close at $212.06. The expansion of the Vera Rubin platform globally, ongoing expansion of AI compute demand, and—after the recent pullback in chip stocks—some institutions viewing valuations as already attractive, all supported Nvidia’s outperformance.

Q: Why did Alphabet’s share price fall after hours despite its earnings beating expectations?

Alphabet’s Q2 revenue and earnings per share both beat expectations, but the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion. AI investment made the company’s free cash flow turn negative for the first time on a quarterly basis, and the market is worried that near-term earnings quality will be damaged.

Q: What is the current level of the correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin?

Between 2025 and 2026, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq was as high as 0.88 in certain trading windows. But since July 1, Bitcoin has risen by about 9% while the Nasdaq has fallen by about 6%, and the two have shown a phase-level divergence.