#夏日创作营 Macro Outlook and Crypto Market Forecast: The Fed’s Rate Decision Is Imminent, and the Crypto Market Waits on Bated Breath

Macro Outlook and Crypto Market Forecast: The Fed’s Rate Decision Is Imminent, and the Crypto Market Waits on Bated Breath
In July 2026, the crypto market is seeking balance between macro pressure and ETF fund flows. With the Fed’s rate decision looming at the end of July, any hints in Powell’s remarks about the pace of balance-sheet reduction could directly impact crypto market sentiment, with BTC $63,000 as a key support level.
I. Macro Environment
The Fed’s balance-sheet reduction process continues, and expectations of tighter liquidity are weighing on the crypto market.
With the Fed’s rate decision due at the end of July, markets expect rates to remain unchanged, but any hint in Powell’s speech about the pace of balance-sheet reduction will directly affect crypto market sentiment. Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool shows about a 45% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September.
II. Crypto Market Forecast
BTC: Key support at $63,000 (200-day moving average); if it breaks down or retests $58,000. Resistance at $68,000 (a psychological level).
ETH: Support at $1,700; resistance at $2,000, tracking BTC’s moves.
III. Macro Factors Significantly Affect the Crypto Market, with High Policy Uncertainty.
Investors should manage position sizes and make decisions after carefully assessing risk tolerance.

Institutional Viewpoints
Goldman Sachs forecasts a year-end target price for Bitcoin of $95,000, citing continued net ETF inflows, the visible effects of the halving, and a widening of macro liquidity. Citibank maintains a neutral rating on BTC, saying $63,000 is a key support level.
JPMorgan warns that if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, BTC could dip to $50,000.

Institutional Strategies
Goldman Sachs: Year-end BTC target price of $95,000, maintaining a buy-add/accumulate rating. Rationale: Continued net ETF inflows, the halving supply shock becoming evident, and macro liquidity loosening.
Citibank: Neutral rating; $63,000 is a key support level, and if it breaks down or tests $50,000.
JPMorgan: Cautious; warns that a hawkish Fed stance will cause BTC to fall to below $50,000.
Galaxy Digital: Bullish; predicts BTC will break above $150,000 in 2027, and AI-compute-related tokens will benefit.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice