Pre Market Thoughts - 23 Jul 26

US yields inched higher - with bets on a fed hike rising together with crude prices. WTI is almost at 90, after plumbing the lows of a 6 handle just last month.
In asia markets, $KOSPI is up 4% while $NKY is up a smidge. $SKHYNIX (or $SK HIJINX) is up almost 6%. $SKHY also has affirmed that the cap for the ADR is at 2.5% - which means no new share issuance. This means that effectively $SKHY is a 30b mkt cap memory stonk. I would expect the 51% premium to continue to widen from here.
$GOOG earnings yesterday had a hilarious reaction by the many participants. We have people who cannot distinguish between a cashflow statement and an income statement. Please, be careful of what you read out there. There many people who are overconfident but know nothing. I always encourage everyone to be discerning - after all, everybody can be wrong. Some people are terribly wrong.
Moving forward, given the positive results on $GOOG cloud, i also expect that we will have a new regime where the MAGS7 and the Semis complex moves up together. Wall street is now getting some indication of the margins and the revenues that these capex is generating. While we may still have some late sellers, once those are parsed through, i would expect the complex as a whole to move.
Liang of Deepseek also gave an interview - i think its highly enlightening and also sheds a light on why China is pursuing OS. Interestingly, their pricing model right now is set at breakevens by month 10 - with a 5-6year depreciation schedule. They could double pricing and demand is inelastic.
In terms of road map - he sees it as going from "agents" -> "continuous learning" - "self improving ai" -" agi". First off, agents are already resulted in much higher usage and a spike in inference demand. If we go into continuous learning loops - this is going to increase compute demands even further...
Liang also sees Chinese hardware catching up to the US ...perhaps Jenson was right. The US biggest advantage is getting everyone onto their platform.
Good luck!