At 8:15 tonight, the ECB interest-rate decision will be released; at 8:45, Lagarde will speak—don’t think this is just about the euro zone; how BTC moves in the short term depends entirely on how she “performs.”

The market expects rates to stay unchanged, but the focus is the wording from the press conference: if Lagarde hints that there will be another rate hike in September, the US dollar will likely strengthen, and BTC will likely face early pressure; if she gives leeway and talks about a window for rate cuts, the US dollar may soften, and it’s quite possible BTC will ride the momentum to surge.

My personal strategy: before the decision, I won’t place any orders. I’ll wait until the press conference starts to assess. Watch the psychological level of BTC at 65000; resistance overhead is at the daily EMA, and support below is the previous low. If Lagarde is more hawkish, I’ll wait for a breakdown below support before considering an entry; if she’s more dovish, I won’t chase the rebound—I’ll wait for a pullback and confirmation.

Don’t bet against central banks, especially don’t chase and sell aggressively at the exact moment data is released. The short-term direction for BTC tonight is decided by Lagarde #Gate事件合约首发狂欢