Analysis: Signs of improvement in U.S. Bitcoin demand—Coinbase premium narrows, ETF weekly inflows turn positive

PANews July 23 news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that weekly net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have rebounded to $439 million, the first clearly positive sign since May. The Coinbase premium index narrowed to -0.042 after remaining negative for 78 consecutive days, up about 80% from the February low of -0.229. US spot demand is emerging from the period of maximum pressure; although the discount has not disappeared, it has narrowed significantly. The return of ETF capital flows to positive territory confirms an improvement in market structure.

However, the ETF cohort as a whole is still sitting on an unrealized loss of 22%, with an average cost basis of about $84,714, while current BTC is around $66,110. If prices rebound to that level, some holders may exit when they break even, creating potential selling pressure. Analysts noted that the key signal is that two indicators are improving at the same time, but since the premium has been negative for 78 straight days, a sustainable reversal has not been confirmed yet. If the premium turns positive and weekly capital flows remain positive, the situation will be confirmed as a shift; if capital flows turn negative again and the discount widens, the May-June pattern will return.