Over the past few days, watching the market closely, I’ve felt that a lot of people are getting led around by all kinds of news. Today, I’ll just pull the macro news out and talk about it separately, hoping to help everyone get a clearer picture of the current situation.

Recently, the crypto market has looked weak largely not because of anything inside the crypto space, but because the broader macro environment has been dragging it down.

The most direct spark is the escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Affected by heightened tensions involving Iran, international oil prices have recently surged a lot; even Brent crude has broken through the $91 mark. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations tend to move up as well, naturally suppressing risk appetite. In this kind of “flight to safety” sentiment, capital often pulls out from stock markets and crypto, seeking safer harbors. So, crypto’s failure to break through resistance lately is, to a large extent, crypto paying the bill for macro geopolitical risk.

Also, earnings reports from major U.S. tech companies have become a kind of barometer for how much risk the market is willing to take. For example, Alphabet’s recent performance beat expectations, while Tesla’s profits came in below expectations—this kind of divergence directly affects where risk capital flows. Crypto market correlation with the U.S. stock market is getting stronger. If tech stocks catch a cold, the crypto market often follows right along.

But on the macro front, it’s not all bad news. In regulation, there are actually undercurrents building.

The U.S. Congress has recently released the latest draft of the CLARITY Act. Whether it can successfully pass through the Senate remains unknown, but at least it gives the market a structural support. For long-term capital, a clear regulatory framework matters far more than short-term price fluctuations. That’s also why, even when the market is choppy, you can still see some institutional funds stepping in on dips.

Speaking of institutional funds, the recent data on Bitcoin spot ETFs has also been pretty interesting. Although the single-day inflow amount has clearly declined, suggesting that institutional buyers are more cautious when prices are at short-term highs, overall there hasn’t been a large-scale withdrawal of capital. This cooling-off is actually a healthy “washout” process—much better than blind, irrational exuberance.

Taken together, the current macro environment brings both pressure and support to the crypto market. Oil prices and geopolitics are the sword hanging over our heads, while regulatory progress and institutions’ long-term positioning are the盾 protecting us from below.

At this stage, there’s really no need for everyone to get overly anxious about short-term volatility. Shifts in the macro big picture take time. What we can do is stay patient, look more and act less—once the macro headwinds have been digested about enough, the market will naturally give a new direction.

Have you been affected by news about oil prices or the U.S. stock market in your trading recently? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.
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