KEEL’s stock price surged nearly 270% in a year: How will a 2.2 GW power asset bet on the new era of AI data centers?

On July 23, 2026, Beijing time, Keel Infrastructure Corp (NASDAQ: KEEL) closed at $4.69, up 0.86% on the day. Over the past five trading days, the stock has gained 11.93% cumulatively. This North American digital infrastructure and energy company, headquartered in New York, has seen its stock rise more than 80% year-to-date. If the timeline is extended to one year, the gains are even more striking—reaching 269.29%, far exceeding the industry’s average returns and the S&P 500’s performance over the same period.

The sharp rise in the share price reflects the market’s pricing of KEEL’s strategic pivot. The company, formerly named Bitfarms, is making a full-scale transition from a highly volatile Bitcoin miner to a developer of AI and high-performance computing data center infrastructure. However, between the narrative and valuation, the financial data paints a more complex picture.

Bull thesis: the structural intersection of power assets and AI demand

The scarce value of a 2.2 GW power pipeline

Keel’s core asset is a power development pipeline spanning North America with a total capacity of about 2.2 GW. These power capacities are distributed across high-demand power markets in Pennsylvania, Washington State, and Quebec, Canada, and grid interconnections have already been established—an important detail in today’s AI data center arms race.

In the AI compute arms race, the difficulty of acquiring GPUs is being outpaced by bottlenecks in power supply. In some parts of the United States, the wait time for new grid interconnection applications has stretched to five to seven years. Gartner predicts that global data center power demand in 2026 will rise from 104 GW in 2025 to 132 GW, an annual increase of about 27%. Jefferies estimates that, based on accelerator chip shipment volumes, global AI data center power demand in 2026 could reach about 30 GW, with North America at nearly 19 GW.

Under this supply-side rigidity constraint, Keel’s already-approved power capacity of about 575 MW (covering four sites) becomes its most differentiated competitive moat. Building power infrastructure of the same scale from scratch and completing grid approvals would require far more time and capital than Keel’s current market valuation.

A wave of capital expenditures from hyperscale enterprises

Demand at the end of the AI data center chain is expanding at an unprecedented scale. Tech giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle are expected to total $660 billion to $725 billion in data center capital expenditures in 2026, with about 75% going toward AI infrastructure. Jefferies’ estimate is even more aggressive—hyperscalers’ capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to reach $770 billion.

This level of spending implies that rigid demand for power capacity and physical space in data centers will keep rising. Bernstein noted that, in the current cycle, more than $1 trillion in investment commitments is already being directed toward real infrastructure construction. As an infrastructure holder with ready power access and developable land, Keel is theoretically positioned to benefit upstream from this capital flood.

The market is assigning a premium to AI infrastructure assets

Analysts’ consensus rating for KEEL is “Strong Buy.” Based on S&P Global’s survey of 10 analysts, KEEL’s 12-month average target price is $6.22, implying about 32.62% upside from the current price. Koyfin data shows a 12-month average target price of $6.40. On July 22, BTIG initiated coverage of KEEL, giving it a “Buy” rating with a $8 target price, implying potential upside of about 72%. Citizens JMP set a more optimistic $10 target price on June 24.

Institutional actions also support this view. After Situational Awareness LP, an entity under well-known investor Leopold Aschenbrenner, first initiated a position of about 7 million shares in Q4 2025, the holding is expected to increase to nearly 20 million shares in Q1 2026, an increase of about 188%. As of March 31, 2026, Jane Street Group held about 20.82 million shares, representing 3.45% of outstanding shares. Overall, the institutional investor ownership ratio is about 49.97%.

Risk factors: financial friction during the transition and execution uncertainty

The conversion from assets to revenue is not complete

Keel’s most core issue is that its 2.2 GW power pipeline—this core asset that the market assigns a high valuation to—has not yet been converted into long-term customer contracts with binding commitments.

The company’s Q1 2026 financial data reveals the pains of the transition. Revenue was $37 million, down 23% year over year. General and administrative expenses were $27 million, accounting for 73% of quarterly revenue. Gross margin was -20.8%, and operating margin was -97.5%. Net loss expanded from $55 million in Q1 2025 to $145.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA fell from positive $7 million in the year-ago period to negative $17 million.

Management has clearly stated that 2026’s priority is execution rather than revenue—specifically, signing one lease at each of three core sites: Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake. However, revenue from these leases is expected to begin only in 2027. Until then, the company remains in a “pre-revenue” stage.

A double pressure on the capital structure

As of May 8, 2026, Keel’s total liquidity is about $533 million, including about $336 million in unrestricted cash and about $197 million in unencumbered Bitcoin. While this cash reserve appears ample, it needs to be viewed within a larger debt framework.

The company holds about $648 million in total debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of about 138%. Free cash flow over the past twelve months was -$407 million. In June 2026, the company completed a $458 million convertible preferred notes financing—showing both market recognition of its transition narrative and that the capital required for the transition has not yet been generated by the business itself.

One detail worth noting is that, as of June 30, 2026, KEEL’s short interest is about 94.95 million shares, representing 16% of float and 15.73% of issued shares. This relatively high short interest indicates that disagreement in the market about whether KEEL’s transition can succeed remains significant.

An increasingly crowded competitive landscape

Keel is not the only player targeting AI data center infrastructure opportunities. In managed services and hosted services, new cloud providers such as CoreWeave are expanding rapidly—CoreWeave completed an $8.5 billion delayed draw term loan in March 2026, obtaining an investment-grade rating with GPUs and customer contracts as underlying assets. In the data center REIT space, Digital Realty and Equinix have established operating track records, diversified customer portfolios, and positive free cash flow.

Hyperscale cloud vendors themselves are also accelerating their own data center builds. Bernstein expects the industry’s overall vacancy rate to reach about 4.9% in 2026 at the low point, before rising to more than 10.5% in 2028—meaning catch-up is happening on the supply side.

On valuation, KEEL’s price-to-sales ratio is about 14x (based on trailing revenue), while mature data center operators such as Digital Realty trade around 8x to 10x. This premium essentially prices in an as-yet-unrealized event: “successful transition.”

Key observation checkpoints

Whether KEEL’s investment logic can be realized depends on several verifiable milestones:

First, whether the company can complete lease signings at Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake within 2026. This is a key step to convert power assets into long-term contract cash flows.

Second, progress on the Sherbrooke data center project in Quebec. The project has received Sherbrooke city approval this month; the next step requires approval from Quebec’s Ministry of Economy, Innovation and Energy.

Third, the upcoming Q2 earnings report on August 10, 2026. The market will closely watch revenue trends, the cash burn pace, and updates on transition progress.

Conclusion

Keel Infrastructure represents a unique type of investment: it holds power assets that are extremely scarce in the AI data center race, but its financial data still reflects the legacy model of a Bitcoin miner. The 2.2 GW power pipeline is real, and the growth of end demand for AI data centers is also real—but a commercial connection has not yet been established between the two that is sufficient to support the current valuation.

For investors focused on the AI infrastructure sector, KEEL is an observation target that requires continuous monitoring of execution progress. Its upside depends on lease signings and the conversion to revenue, while downside risks come from the speed of capital consumption and changes in the competitive landscape. In the remainder of 2026, lease progress will be a signal worth monitoring more than stock price volatility.

FAQ

1. What is KEEL’s current fundamentals situation?

As of July 23, 2026, Beijing time, KEEL closed at $4.69, with a market capitalization of about $10k. Q1 2026 revenue was $37 million, down 23% year over year, and net loss was $145.4 million. The company holds about $533 million in liquidity, but total debt is about $648 million, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 138%.

2. KEEL is transitioning from a Bitcoin miner to an AI data center company—what is the logic behind this transition?

Keel shifts its business focus from more volatile Bitcoin mining to AI and high-performance computing data center infrastructure. Its core asset is a connected power pipeline of about 2.2 GW. Against the backdrop of explosive AI compute demand and power access becoming a critical bottleneck, the market believes the value of these power assets is far higher than their use as Bitcoin mining sites.

3. What are analysts’ expectations for KEEL’s stock?

According to S&P Global’s survey of 10 analysts, KEEL has a consensus rating of “Strong Buy,” with a 12-month average target price of $6.22. BTIG initiated coverage on July 22 and gave a “Buy” rating with an $8 target price. However, the analysts’ target price range is wide, with a low of $3.00 and a high of $10.00.

4. What are the main risks KEEL faces?

The core risk is that power assets have not yet been converted into actual revenue—the company has not yet signed large long-term customer contracts, and revenue is expected to start only in 2027. At the same time, the company is in a high capital consumption stage, with free cash flow of -$407 million over the past twelve months. In addition, ongoing competitive pressure comes from competitors such as Digital Realty, Equinix, and CoreWeave, as well as the trend of cloud providers building their own data centers.

5. Should KEEL be included on an AI infrastructure investment watchlist?

KEEL offers a unique investment logic of “power assets + AI demand,” but the current valuation already prices in part of the expectation that the transition will succeed. For investors interested in this asset, within 2026 the lease signing progress, the Q2 earnings report, and project approval developments are validation checkpoints that are more worth watching than short-term stock price moves.