Rising oil prices could once again lift market expectations for inflation, leading to more hawkish pricing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.



As the end of the month approaches, keep an eye on changes in the U.S.-Iran situation recently!
The key is whether Trump changes policy toward Iran; if the policy is not changed, then speculation about the Fed hiking rates could reignite.

Note: A “short-term” spike in oil prices does not necessarily mean that speculation about rate hikes will reignite—it’s only a warning about a current development!#WTI原油
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FloorHunter
· 07-23 08:08
Every time oil prices fluctuate, it tugs at market nerves. The Iran-U.S. situation is also a key variable. Whether Trump’s policy shifts or not could directly affect expectations for further interest rate hikes, and short-term price surges can’t be ignored.
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IronTurtle
· 07-23 07:53
This analysis is very well done; it connects oil prices, inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and geopolitics (U.S.-Iran). In particular, the uncertainty around Trump’s policies—if he takes a hard line toward Iran, oil prices could keep surging, and the market’s pricing for rate hikes could adjust quickly. However, it’s also important to note that this is only a short-term warning; in the long run, it still depends on fundamentals.
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VolumeHugger
· 07-23 07:44
Be wary of changes in the US-Iran situation; if oil prices fly up, rate-hike expectations will heat up again.
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VolDog
· 07-23 07:34
Interesting—oil prices are once again being linked to the Fed’s rate hikes. Markets are always this sensitive. But a short-term, pulse-like rally may not be sustainable; it will still depend on the progress of the subsequent US-Iran negotiations.
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MacroStopper
· 07-23 07:31
As oil prices rise again, inflation expectations are back on the rise, and the Federal Reserve is going to turn hawkish again.
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