Technical Outlook: ETH Reclaims Short-Term EMAs, but 100 EMA Remains the Major Barrier

Ethereum is extending its recovery after defending the $1,888–$1,904 demand zone. Price has reclaimed both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, while RSI continues to strengthen above the neutral level, signaling improving bullish momentum. However, ETH remains below the 100 EMA and 200 EMA, indicating the higher-timeframe trend is still bearish despite the ongoing relief rally.

📈 EMA Structure (Short-Term Bullish Recovery)

20 EMA: $1,841.45

50 EMA: $1,831.47

100 EMA: $1,937.74

200 EMA: $2,192.98

ETH is trading above both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, confirming buyers have regained short-term control.

The 100 EMA ($1,937.74) is the next major resistance and remains the key level required to confirm a broader trend reversal.

The 200 EMA ($2,192.98) continues to act as strong higher-timeframe resistance.

👉 The short-term structure favors buyers, but the macro trend remains bearish until ETH establishes sustained price action above the 100 EMA.

📐 Fibonacci & Market Structure

ETH remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,298.74, confirming the higher-timeframe downtrend remains intact.

Buyers continue defending the $1,888–$1,904 demand zone, creating a higher-low structure after sweeping sell-side liquidity.

Price is currently testing a local resistance cluster around $1,922–$1,946, where previous supply and liquidity could trigger profit-taking.

Bullish Targets:

$1,946 (100 EMA resistance zone)

$2,000

$2,193 (200 EMA)

$2,299 (0.236 Fibonacci)

Bearish Scenario:

Losing $1,904 would weaken the current recovery structure.

A breakdown below $1,888 would invalidate the bullish setup and increase the probability of revisiting recent lows.

🧠 ICT / Smart Money View

ETH has reclaimed nearby buy-side liquidity after sweeping the June lows and is attempting to build a bullish market structure.

Price is filling a short-term Fair Value Gap (FVG) while approaching a nearby Order Block (OB), where sellers may become active.

A confirmed Market Structure Shift (MSS) followed by a strong daily close above the 100 EMA ($1,937.74) would significantly improve the bullish outlook.

📉 RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 62.99

RSI is holding well above the 50 level, indicating buyers currently control momentum.

A move into the 65–70 zone would strengthen the bullish continuation case.

A drop back below 50 would signal weakening bullish momentum.

📊 Key Levels

🔴 Resistance

$1,922

$1,946 (100 EMA)

$2,000

$2,193 (200 EMA)

🟢 Support

$1,904

$1,888 (Major demand zone)

$1,876

📌 Final Outlook

Ethereum continues to show encouraging recovery signs after reclaiming both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, while RSI remains firmly above 50, reflecting improving buying momentum. Even so, the broader trend has not yet turned bullish, with the 100 EMA continuing to act as major resistance.

✅ Holding above $1,904 keeps the short-term recovery intact.

✅ A breakout and daily close above $1,937.74 could accelerate upside toward $2,100–$2,200, with the 200 EMA ($2,192.98) becoming the next major objective.

❌ Losing $1,888 would shift momentum back in favor of sellers and expose the recent swing lows.

Overall Bias: Neutral to Bullish (Short Term). ETH is building a relief rally from a key demand zone, but confirmation of a higher-timeframe bullish reversal requires a decisive breakout and sustained hold above the 100 EMA ($1,937.74) and the nearby resistance cluster.
$ETH ‌#SummerCreationCamp