ℹ️ Current news and the CLARITY Act status as of now

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) bill, which defines the market structure for digital assets in the U.S., has reached a critical turning point.

✉️ What we know for sure today:

🗣️ Breakthrough in this ethical deadlock: For a long time, the Senate’s review was stalled due to disputes over conflicts of interest and restrictions for senior officials (the president, vice president, and members of Congress) from launching their own crypto currencies while in office. On the evening of July 20, 2026, the White House and President Donald Trump agreed on and submitted to the Senate a package of ethical amendments, removing the main political barrier from the past few weeks.

🗣️ Current disagreements: The arguments have shifted to the enforcement level of the new ethical rules. Republicans insist that the violations should be handled by the Department of Justice (DOJ), while Democrats are calling to expand the authority of state attorneys general.

💬 Key provisions of the bill:

🔜 Shifting most of the oversight over digital assets to the jurisdiction of CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission).
🔜 Leaving tokens that exhibit characteristics of securities under the control of the SEC (with clear criteria for assets to transition into the status of decentralized commodities via the “Regulation Crypto” mechanism).
🔜 A strict requirement to separate client funds and exchange/intermediary assets in the event of bankruptcies (protection against repeating scenarios like Voyager or FTX).
🔜 Establishing safe harbors for developers in decentralized finance (DeFi).

💬 What dates and goals are ahead

🗣️ Current moment (July 22–24, 2026): Intensive inter-chamber consultations and final Senate-text alignment are underway, taking into account the amendments delivered by the White House.

🗣 Early August 2026 (deadline of August 7–8): The main goal of the Senate leadership (in particular, Majority Leader John Thune) is to get the bill onto a full Senate vote before Congress goes on summer recess.

🗣 Likelihood of passage: Against the backdrop of the latest news about an ethics compromise, chances for a vote and approval in the Senate have surged (in forecasts, the probability of a successful vote jumped to the 70% range). However, for final approval, the bill must clear a 60-vote barrier, and then pass through a reconciliation process between the House and Senate versions.

💬 Forecast: which cryptocurrencies and sectors will be affected by the law

CLARITY Act approval will become a fundamental macro driver for the entire U.S. and global crypto market, but the impact on different categories of assets will vary:

1️⃣ Major altcoins with a clear commodity status (e.g., Ethereum, Solana, etc.):
Impact: Strongly positive. The law will clearly enshrine a mechanism under which matured blockchain networks and their native tokens, after passing the initial distribution phase, fall under CFTC regulation as commodities. This fully eliminates the risk of SEC lawsuits against such projects and opens the door to large institutional investments via spot ETFs.

2️⃣ Tokens of decentralized platforms and infrastructure projects (DeFi):
Impact: Moderately positive / protective. The appearance of legal “safe harbors” for DeFi developers will protect protocols, decentralized exchanges (DEXs), and lending services from being pursued by regulators for not controlling users’ behavior.

3️⃣ Meme coins and speculative assets:
Impact: Uncertain. On one hand, broad market legalization increases liquidity. On the other hand, stricter ethical standards and issuance rules for insiders and public figures (especially amid scandals involving political meme coins) could cool the most speculative segment, depriving it of the gray zone for manipulation.

4️⃣ Stablecoins:
Impact: Indirect. While baseline rules for stablecoins are also being developed in related initiatives (such as the GENIUS Act), the broader CLARITY Act ecosystem will legalize the use of blockchain payments by traditional financial institutions and banks, strengthening the position of leading dollar coins.

🤫 What to expect and by when?

🗓 Short term (July — August 2026): Increased volatility in news feeds. The market will be pricing in the news flow around the Senate vote before lawmakers go on recess.

🗓 Medium term (end of 2026 — 2027): If the law is successfully adopted, a large-scale phase of developing implementing regulations by the SEC and CFTC will begin, taking from several months to half a year. This will kick off a wave of large-scale tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and an inflow of institutional capital into the U.S., as funds will finally have the long-awaited regulatory certainty.