#夏日创作营 Many people think that BTC is up—has the altcoin bull market really arrived?

But BTC’s market cap share still remains close to 59% today. Nearly 60% of the funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin.

And the key characteristic of an altcoin rally is: BTC’s share begins to decline continuously.

Because capital typically follows a classic rotation sequence:

ETFs and institutional funds buy BTC first;

After BTC rises, funds start flowing into ETH;

After ETH stabilizes, then funds move into SOL and other major L1 chains;

Only then do mid- and small-cap altcoins fully get activated.

But now, BTC’s share is not only not declining meaningfully—it’s still holding at a high level with range-bound consolidation.

This suggests that this leg up is being driven more by institutional capital and risk-averse funds.

Although ETFs have had net inflows for multiple consecutive days, a large amount of capital is still staying in BTC and hasn’t formed a broad-based spread.

This also explains why BTC keeps bouncing,

but most altcoins still don’t have a strong “money-making effect.”

When judging an altcoin season, don’t just watch the BTC price.

You should instead look at three signals:

1. BTC’s market cap share starts to keep falling;
2. ETH/BTC keeps strengthening;
3. Trading volumes across major L1s and altcoins noticeably expand.

Only when capital truly begins moving from BTC to the entire market can an altcoin rally really open up.