Benchmark Cuts Its Coinbase Q2 Earnings Forecast, Analysts Say the “Clarity Act” Is the Catalyst Behind the Surge

According to The Block, due to a sharp drop in crypto market spot trading volume in the second quarter, Benchmark analyst lowered its second-quarter earnings forecast and full-year revenue estimate for Coinbase. However, the analyst emphasized that June trading activity has shown signs of stabilization; more importantly, if the U.S. Congress passes the Clarity Act (crypto market structure bill) smoothly, Coinbase will become the biggest beneficiary, and its long-term positive impact far outweighs the weakness in a single quarter’s financial report.
(Background: Coinbase CEO swaps out his profile photo; Base meme coin Brain crashes 93%, leaving $1.4 million)
(Additional context: Record high! Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been “in negative territory” for 60 straight days, and U.S. institutional buying has cooled off)

As Coinbase, the U.S.-listed crypto exchange, is set to release its second-quarter earnings report next week, market attention on its operating performance has intensified. According to The Block, Mark Palmer, an analyst at the well-known investment bank Benchmark, on the eve of the earnings release, lowered revenue expectations for the U.S.’s largest crypto exchange in response to the challenging overall crypto trading environment; however, he also pointed out that a potential regulatory bill could become a key catalyst to lift the stock price.

Trading volume plunges; Q2 revenue forecast is revised downward

In his latest report, Palmer cut Coinbase’s second-quarter revenue forecast from the prior $1.51 billion to $1.38 billion; at the same time, he also trimmed his full-year 2026 revenue forecast from $6.33 billion to $6 billion.

This downward revision mainly reflects the harsh challenges facing the crypto market in the second quarter. Data shows that during this period, spot trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) fell sharply by about 28%, perpetual contract trading activity also declined, and the overall crypto total market capitalization dropped by roughly 13%. Based on these factors, Benchmark predicts that Coinbase’s trading revenue will face a decline of more than 5%.

However, Palmer also brought a glimmer of hope. He noted that Coinbase’s trading activity has stabilized in June; spot trading volume rebounded to the first time it exceeded the $1 trillion level since March. This sign of recovery is expected to mitigate the impact of the quarter’s overall weak performance.

Maintains a Buy rating; Clarity Act is the biggest positive catalyst

Despite the short-term forecast cut, Benchmark remains optimistic about Coinbase’s outlook, keeping its “Buy” rating and the $270 target price unchanged. Based on Coinbase’s share price of about $172 at the time the report was published (down about 27% year-to-date), this implies the stock still has up to about 57% upside potential.

The article emphasizes that for investors, the macro outlook for the crypto market in the second half of 2026 matters more than the quarterly financial numbers. Palmer said plainly that the market has not yet fully priced in the “option value” brought by the potential passage of the Clarity Act. He believes that once the bill aimed at establishing a comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure clears, Coinbase will become one of the biggest potential beneficiaries.

It is worth noting that one day before this report was released, U.S. President Trump signed related moral clauses, clearing the final legislative obstacles for the Clarity Act. The bill is expected to prohibit federal officials from issuing cryptocurrencies and formally transfer the related enforcement authority to the Department of Justice. Benchmark concluded that the bill’s long-term positive impact will far outweigh the weak second-quarter earnings report—this is the real main driver that can push Coinbase’s stock price back onto an upward track.