Prediction Markets Lift Rate-Hike Odds, XRP Rally Faces Risk

A popular crypto-market commentator warned that a sharp rise in prediction-market bets on higher U.S. interest rates could matter more for XRP than the ongoing optimism around the CLARITY Act.

Levi Rietveld argues that traders are overlooking a potentially tighter macro backdrop while pricing in regulatory progress that remains uncertain.

The YouTube show host said President Donald Trump had “reportedly agreed to ethics language” in the CLARITY Act, a development presented as a possible step toward a Senate vote.

However, Levi remained skeptical that the bill can clear the chamber, arguing that it would need support from nine Democratic senators.

CLARITY Act Enthusiasm Meets a Difficult Senate Math Challenge

Republicans were described as broadly supportive of the crypto-market-structure bill, while Democrats were portrayed as the central obstacle. Levi Rietveld cautioned viewers against assuming that a vote will automatically trigger a new XRP all-time high, noting that similar expectations have circulated repeatedly over the past year.

The timing is also presented as important. If the legislation does not move before Congress’s August recess, the commentator believes its odds of passage could weaken significantly heading into 2026. That is an assessment from the video, rather than a confirmed legislative forecast.

Levi Rietveld also pointed to crypto-policy developments outside the U.S., citing Russia’s reported legalization of cryptocurrency for foreign trade and policy activity in Hong Kong, China, South Korea and Japan. The broader message was that U.S. lawmakers face pressure not to fall behind other jurisdictions pursuing digital-asset frameworks.

Higher Inflation Bets Could Pressure XRP & Other Risk Assets

The YouTube video’s most consequential claim concerned prediction markets, where Levi Rietveld said odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year had climbed to 62%, from roughly 50% a few weeks earlier. No Fed rate increase was announced in the video; the figure reflects betting-market expectations cited by the commentator.

Levi Rietveld attributed the shift to a reported 4.2% annual May CPI reading, strong payroll growth of more than 172,000 jobs, and elevated oil prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Higher rates generally reduce liquidity and can weigh on risk-sensitive assets, including crypto, equities and real estate.

On XRP, the analyst acknowledged recent strong buying and a break above short-term resistance on a 15-minute chart. Still, he said a negative CLARITY Act catalyst could reverse the rally and identified roughly $1.06 per XRP as a downside level he is watching.

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