Today’s market overview

Today we’ll start with on-chain. Yesterday, there was a sell pressure from short-term traders on-chain.
A net 33k BTC was transferred into exchanges in a single day—two times the average of the previous week.
After excluding transfers out, it still resulted in a net inflow of 2,800 BTC into exchanges.
(Transfers into exchanges usually mean selling, i.e., sell pressure)
And these inflows are short-term profit-taking positions: the average holding period is only about a week, which lines up with the group that entered around 62–64k in the first half of July… short-term traders took a bite, then left.
So yesterday, the realized profit was 420 million… at a historically elevated level.
So yesterday was mainly the profit-taker sell pressure from short-term traders.
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Now let’s look at today’s funding situation—there’s currently some disagreement.
Today’s CVD is mostly sideways with a slight downward bias in the Asian session (Figure 1),
but my Coinbase premium shows that before the market open, Coinbase is still trading at a premium today.
Today’s ETF will likely also see a net inflow of 100–200 million. (Figure 2)
So it comes down to whether the ETF premium can use the sell pressure within the crypto market.
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As for everything else, at this level there isn’t any clearer signal that could resonate more strongly…
For aggressive shorts, there’s an entry point around 65.8–65.9k. Here, an aggressive long is currently temporarily underwater (Figure 3).
(Just in time—an aggressive market long order of 2,000+ BTC was used to take the short order that Target guy had placed.)
The observation point for low-long (buy-the-dip) is still around 65k like yesterday, or wait until OI resets back (Figure 4)