$XAUUSD

Gold spot price: around $4,130

Direction bias: range-bound at highs, slightly bullish

Short-term support: $4,100

Strong support: $4,050

First resistance: $4,150

Second resistance: $4,200

Today’s core: Gold has reclaimed above $4,100—does this mark the start of a new uptrend, or are high-position funds taking profits?

In today’s Asian session, my biggest feeling about gold isn’t strength.

It’s hesitation after strength.

Gold has returned to around $4,130, and it’s already very close to the prior resistance zone.

Many people see gold rising again and their first reaction is:

“Is it about to set a new high again?”

But the easiest thing to fool people in the trading market is the emotion after a rise.

The more people are certain it will keep going up, the more you need to be careful about short-term fund taking profits.

The main reasons behind today’s gold rise are a few key logics.

First, the dollar is weakening.

Second, the market is refocusing on global safe-haven demand.

Third, funds are repricing the future rate path.

Recently, gold has reclaimed the $4,100 area mainly due to easing dollar pressure and safe-haven capital flowing back. The market is also continuing to watch for changes in Fed policy.

But the biggest problem now is obvious.

The core logic behind gold’s rise hasn’t disappeared, but the short-term has entered a pressure zone.

Why?

Because $4,130 isn’t a normal position.

This is an area where long/short funds have repeatedly traded.

If it keeps moving higher, it needs fresh capital to push.

Otherwise, it’s easy to see:

Rising → profit-taking shows up → pullback to confirm.

From a technical perspective.

Gold still maintains a long bias structure.

Price staying above $4,100 suggests bulls still temporarily hold the initiative.

But in the short term, I’m focused on two levels.

First:

$4,100.

This is the level that bulls must defend today.

If a pullback to $4,100 can quickly reclaim, it means market acceptance remains strong.

Then there will be opportunities to keep testing $4,150 and even $4,200.

Second:

$4,050.

If $4,100 is lost, the market may look for even stronger support again.

Because after a fast rebound, gold needs a turnover.

Often, a truly healthy rally isn’t about going up every day.

It’s about continuously washing out short-term chips during the rise.

On the macro side, gold’s biggest contradiction remains:

Safe-haven demand VS Fed rate pressure.

If the market starts trading renewed rate-cut expectations, gold will get further support.

Because gold itself doesn’t pay interest—when real rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.

But if inflation pressure heats up again and the Fed keeps a relatively tight policy, upside space for gold will also be limited.

In the recent period, the market has also continued to pay attention to geopolitical risk and shifts in rate expectations—both factors are still important drivers of gold prices.

Tonight’s US and Europe session, I’m watching two scenarios.

First:

Gold breaks above $4,150, and volume keeps up.

Then the market may open new upside space, with the next target at $4,200.

Second:

The attempt to push through $4,150 fails, and the price falls back below $4,100.

Then the short term may enter a correction, pulling back near $4,050 to find fresh buy orders.

My trading plan today.

Near $4,130, I won’t chase the rally.

Because this area is already close to resistance.

If you hold gold long positions, I’d rather continue holding and observe whether $4,150 breaks through.

If you have no position, I’d rather wait for:

$4,100 to confirm support.

Or after a break above $4,150, wait for a pullback confirmation.

The most important thing for gold right now isn’t guessing the top.

It’s waiting for the market to tell us:

Is capital continuing to push price higher, or is this rally being used to distribute profits after everyone starts believing in the rise?

One sentence from the trading room:

Gold’s real major moves never happen when it’s already pumping, but when everyone starts believing it’s rising—and whether the market can still keep giving higher prices.
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