Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that due to the yen’s continued depreciation, inflation risks have intensified. Bank of Japan officials are open to rate hikes earlier than the market expects, and they have not set a fixed path of “raising rates once every 6 months.” The market broadly expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged at its July 31 meeting. Previously, it raised policy rates to 1% in June, the highest level in 31 years. Currently, overnight index swaps show a roughly 72% probability that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again before October.

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StampCollector
· 2h ago
I think the Bank of Japan is just floating signals to test how the market reacts; whether it actually hikes rates depends on how inflation looks.
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MEVMechanic
· 17h ago
Every time I see news like this, I think of yen carry trades—what happens to all those carry trade positions if rates are raised?
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CrossBorderPioneer
· 17h ago
With a 72% probability, gamblers are placing bets again, but sometimes the market does the opposite.
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Puppeteer
· 18h ago
A weaker yen is good news for export companies, but it is simply a disaster for the cost of living for imports and for ordinary people—the central bank is now stuck between a rock and a hard place.
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L2LazyBear
· 18h ago
Market expectations are for another interest rate hike sometime before October, but don’t forget that Japan’s economic recovery is still fragile—otherwise we may end up getting “called out” again.
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LiquidationHunter
· 18h ago
Inflation risk is intensifying; wages haven’t risen much, and further rate hikes are another heavy blow to ordinary Japanese people.
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