📉 The crypto market is relatively strong, but the uptrend has not been confirmed yet

Wintermute’s latest analysis shows that the U.S. CPI in June fell 0.4% month-over-month, bringing inflation down to 3.5%—below expectations. The market has already priced out a rate hike in July. But geopolitical risks drove a weekly surge of 15.54% in Brent crude, leading to clear divergence among risk assets: ETH rose 3.64%, BTC rose 1.46%, while the Nasdaq index fell 4.16%.
After the CPI release, Bitcoin surged from $62,000 to $64,900. ETH briefly rose 7% to $1,884, with $134 million liquidations of shorts in one hour. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $191 million over Tuesday and Wednesday, ending 10 consecutive days of outflows. However, compared with the $4.5 billion record net outflow in June, the scale is still not large enough to confirm a trend reversal.
Wintermute believes that if ETFs see net inflows for a consecutive week, and Bitcoin breaks above $66,000 and holds it for several trading days, the relatively strong signal would be confirmed. But this view could be invalidated if Brent crude breaks $90 or if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
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