Space Dreams and a Capital Bubble: Talking About SpaceX SPCX

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX officially listed on Nasdaq and began trading under the ticker code SPCX. This much-anticipated IPO set a world record for its fundraising size, and for a time investors described it as “a once-in-a-generation space investment opportunity.”

First, let’s get clear about what we’re actually investing in:

The company has two core businesses, forming a “one steady, one speculative” setup.

Starlink is the steady foundation— the global leader in low-Earth-orbit satellite internet. It continues to generate revenue from both consumer and military markets, and it is the only SpaceX business that consistently produces profits; the Falcon rocket series, leveraging reusable technology, significantly lowers launch costs and holds an absolute share of the global commercial launch market.

As for Starship, it’s the bet on the future. Once it matures and is successfully deployed, it will fundamentally change the cost of space transportation and open up imagination for lunar development, Mars migration, and the space industrial sector. But Starship’s R&D spending runs into hundreds of billions of dollars, and in the short term it cannot deliver positive returns, steadily consuming the company’s cash flow.

The shift in market sentiment is clearly visible:

On the first day after the listing, money came in frantically and the stock price climbed steadily; after the frenzy ended, funds began to assess valuation more calmly. The valuation today corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio far above the average level of U.S. tech stocks—effectively meaning the market assumes that the business will continue high-speed growth for the next ten-plus years. If Starship’s R&D progress is delayed or Starlink’s user growth slows down, the valuation will face a sharp sell-off—this is also the core reason the stock price has continued to fall recently and even broke below the offering price.

At the same time, there are two key points that retail investors are especially likely to overlook:

First, control risk. Under the dual-class share structure, Musk holds most of the voting power. Corporate strategy and the direction of capital investment are basically decided by him alone, and ordinary outside investors cannot intervene in business decisions.

Second, don’t confuse “having confidence in the industry” with “buying a stock.” The space industry has long-term development prospects, but an excessively high stock price has already priced in too much expectation. Even if the sector trends upward, it doesn’t automatically mean the stock price will rise right away.

Finally, a personal reflection:

Musk is good at attracting capital with grand visions—Tesla has already proven this model. But the capital market will never permanently buy into pure dreams; ultimately, a stock’s long-term path depends only on performance that can be continuously delivered.

If you’re planning to position yourself in SPCX:

Don’t buy emotionally driven by space narratives; strictly control your position size and be mentally prepared to withstand large swings; continuously track the three core indicators: Starlink user growth, Starship test-flight progress, and quarterly financial reports. #夏日创作营