Late-night bombshell! $25B in short bets on SpaceX, Musk says: Short sellers can’t hold out! Is the last chance still a wealth trap?

After the close of U.S. stock markets on August 4, SpaceX (SPCX.O) will release its first quarterly earnings report since going public. At this pivotal moment as it approaches, short-sellers are not backing off—instead, they’re upping their bets.

Based on estimates from S3 Partners, around 206 million shares of SpaceX stock are currently being shorted, accounting for about 32% of its publicly traded float. The nominal short position size is as high as $25 billion. This percentage has been rising very rapidly over the recent period.

S3 Partners data shows that just last week, the number of shares being shorted in SpaceX was about 185 million, representing 29% of the float; about a month ago, the estimated short position was only around 40 million shares, with the ratio sitting between 5% and 7%.

In an interview with CNBC, Matthew Oettrman, head of research at S3, said that short-sellers have continued to increase exposure in the run-up to several key catalyst events, including the company’s first quarterly report as a listed company and the subsequent expiration of the lock-up period. Lock-up expiry typically means shares held by early holders can enter the market float, making it an important timing factor viewed as potentially affecting price supply and demand.

On August 6, SpaceX will see the first large batch of shares unlock since listing. Based on the current scale, this will become one of the largest stock-unlocking events in capital-markets history: up to 911.5 million shares of previously restricted stock will first become eligible for sale, corresponding to a market value of up to $116 billion. This timing is tightly adjacent to the company’s first quarterly performance disclosure.

This unlock is not the endpoint. Before the end of this year, billions more shares will gradually gain trading eligibility. Because unlocks are scheduled in phases, the market is assessing how this uncommon pace—over the coming months—may impact share price, liquidity, and market maneuvering.

Since completing what was the largest-ever initial public offering last month, SpaceX’s share price has been unable to recapture the frenzy seen in the early days after listing. As more shares enter the float step by step, early investors and those who bought the company’s stock in the private market may seek to realize substantial returns. At the same time, short-sellers will have additional room to increase bearish bets.

In response to the growing short positions, Elon Musk posted on the X platform, warning that investors betting against SpaceX could ultimately suffer losses. He wrote, “Companies that keep large short positions in SpaceX have a very low probability of surviving long-term.” Musk also said, “I’ve said that if we achieve our targets, SpaceX’s value will exceed Earth. That’s obviously true.” These remarks continue his longstanding high expectations for the company’s long-term potential, but they have not changed the current market disagreement over valuation and the expansion of the float.

As the first quarterly report approaches, investors are assessing at the same time the company’s long-term growth prospects, its current valuation level, and the impact of potentially more shares entering the float after the lock-up period ends. Bulls emphasize the company’s leading position in the launch-services market, the expansion of its Starlink business, and its AI ambitions; skeptics focus on how much upside growth may still remain that has not yet been priced into the current share price.

In terms of price action, SpaceX shares rose about 3% on Tuesday, ending a prior streak of seven straight trading days of declines. Earlier, a McQuarie analyst reiterated a “beat the market” rating for the stock and suggested investors buy on dips after recent weakness. Shares rose to about $124 that day, still below its $135 IPO offering price. After listing, the stock previously showed a noticeable pullback, and the upcoming earnings report is expected to be the first to provide investors with a more detailed view of its operating performance since the IPO—potentially also becoming a direct trigger for the next round of sparring between bulls and bears.

Follow me: Get more real-time crypto market analysis and insights!

#Gate事件合约首发狂欢 # Trump agrees to include ethical provisions in the Clarity bill #GUSD annualized yield rises to 3.8% $BTC $ETH $SOL